Holley, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

139
FXUS61 KBUF 260957
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
557 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers showers will be possible across the area today. High
pressure will then build into the eastern Great Lakes region tonight
bringing an extended period of dry weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low cloudiness and some patch fog will be the main issue this
morning. There will also be a few scattered showers, with the
greatest chances east of both lakes.
A weakening cold front dropping south out of Canada will approach
the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon. This will bring another
chance of a few showers focused mainly across the North Country and
St. Lawrence Valley. Otherwise...clouds cover will break by this
afternoon with increasing sunshine. Highs today will be found in the
low to mid 70s for most locales.
Tonight...sfc high pressure over the upper Great Lakes will track
east and begin to pass by to our north. We should see quiet weather
with some patchy fog across possible across the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Warm and dry weather this period as a transient ridge of high
pressure across the Upper Great Lakes Saturday morning is quickly
followed by a stronger ridge building east from the northern Plains
through the rest of the weekend. This will keep deeper moisture and
residual troughing along the southeastern coast well away from the
forecast area with perhaps just additional high clouds streaming
northwards Saturday. Temperatures could climb well into the mid 80s
across the typical warm spots in the Genesee Valley Sunday
afternoon, with upper 70s/low 80s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An amplifying ridge across the Great Lakes and central Canada will
maintain dry weather through most, if not all of next week with any
tropical weather remaining well south of the region. A trough diving
south across Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes will force a much
cooler airmass into the region behind a front later Tuesday into
Tuesday night. This will briefly drive temperatures down to more
seasonable levels as we transition into October Wednesday, with
potential for frost at night across the interior areas. Some
moderation back towards above normal levels expected near the end of
the week.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread low stratus and patchy fog will produce a mixture of
VFR/MVFR to IFR CIGS this morning. Any MVFR to IFR low stratus will
gradually improve, with all areas returning to VFR by mid to late
afternoon.
Additionally...a few showers will possible east of the lakes and
again later this afternoon as a weakening cold front drops into the
region.
Tonight...mainly VFR at area terminals but some fog will be possible
across the S. Tier (KJHW) and east of Lake Ontario.
Outlook...
Saturday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Modest chop (1-3 foot waves) anticipated on area lakes with winds of
10 to 15 knots this morning, then lessening by later this afternoon.
High pressure will then build into the lower Great Lakes tonight,
with light winds and flat wave action. A prolonged period of light
winds and minimal wave action begins this weekend and expected to
continue well into next week.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion