731 FXUS63 KLOT 072328 AFDLOTArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 628 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry weather and cooler (more seasonable) temperatures are expected through the remainder of the work week.
- A gradual warming trend commences heading into the weekend with a return of highs in the 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
A much cooler airmass has moved into the region in the wake of a cold front with temperatures back to more seasonable levels (to even slightly cooler than normal). The steady rain has since ended but a few patchy areas of light drizzle/sprinkles may linger south of I-80 and near the lakeshore for the next couple of hours. This should all gradually come to an end by this evening with skies clearing overnight. This should allow temperatures to cool readily after sunset with forecast lows in the 40s to lower 50s (warmest in Chicago). Some upper 30s can`t be ruled out in our typical cool rural spots in interior northern Illinois (mainly west of the Fox River Valley). Think that winds will remain just strong enough to limit frost development this far southeast.
Similar to today`s light lake effect showers/drizzle there is a signal for at least lake effect cloudiness during the day on Tuesday, especially into northeast Illinois. Forecast vertical profiles suggest that this cloud layer will be rather shallow which should limit coverage and have opted to hold off on a formal gridded forecast mention with this update.
Surface high pressure remains in place across the Upper Midwest through midweek with cool north to northeasterly winds holding temperatures in the 60s across the area. Overnight lows both Wednesday and Thursday night could dip into the upper 30s outside of the Chicago metro which may lead to patchy frost development toward daybreak.
An upper level shortwave is progged to dive southeast across Ontario and Michigan on Friday. Current blended guidance keeps the area dry during this time with the majority of the precipitation remaining tied to the better forcing northeast of the local area although a few spotty showers can`t be fully ruled out near an associated weak surface cold front.
A gradual warming trend commences heading into the weekend as mid-level ridging builds into the region in the wake of the Friday shortwave with a return to high temperatures in the 70s. Blended shower chances (20-30%) early next week seem reasonable at this distance though there remains plenty of uncertainty with respect to the track of these features (which could end up west of the area leading to continued dry conditions).
Petr
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
There are no significant forecast concerns this period. Light north/northeast winds are expected to become light north/ northwest winds over the next few hours, then turn back to the northeast Wednesday morning with speeds back into the 10kt range.
Some lake effect cloud cover is expected Wednesday morning with a very small chance for sprinkles. This cloud cover will likely form a low vfr cig and there is some potential for at least few/sct mvfr level cloud cover, but confidence is low for any possible mvfr cigs. cms
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT Wednesday for the IL and IN nearshore waters.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
NWS LOT Office Area Forecast Discussion