Highland City Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

470
FXUS62 KTBW 081250
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
850 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hazardous marine conditions continue through the week.
- Limited heat risk with hot and humid conditions through the
   end of the week.
- Drier and slightly cooler conditions to end the weekend into
   early next week.
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Mostly clear skies across the region early this morning with drier
air, precipitable water less than 1.5 inches, across much of the
area. Some deeper moisture is expected to creep back into
southwest Florida this afternoon and evening, helping to bring a
few showers and possibly a thunderstorm into this area. Otherwise,
not much more than an isolated light shower/sprinkle is expected
across the remainder of the area today. Current forecast looks
good with no adjustments needed.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 850 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF forecast period, but
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could potentially
cause some brief MVFR/local IFR conditions at the southwest
Florida TAF sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW. Also, late tonight into
early Thursday morning there is a possibility of some MVFR
ceilings around the Tampa Bay and I-4 corridor. East to northeast
winds will increase to around 10 knots with some higher gusts this
morning and continue into this evening before diminishing to 4 to
7 knots late this evening into early Thursday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Large upper ridging extends from the W Gulf over the N FL
Peninsula and into the W Atlantic. Mid to upper level drying
continues to expand from N FL over the area through C FL as seen
in WV imagery, FL soundings and ACARs data. Some deeper moisture
remains over S FL to keep rain chances for mainly low topped
showers SW and S FL locations this afternoon and Thursday. Temps
will continue to remain above climate normals into the 90s with
dew points in the 70s to produce a limited heat risk during
afternoon hours.
A shortwave trough will dig into the SE US Thursday deepen and
meander overhead through the weekend and into early next week
bringing a pattern chance to the region. A cold front is expected
move into Florida Friday then exit S FL Saturday with a chance of
showers or a few storms ahead of and along the front.
High pressure building into the region will bring a slightly
cooler and drier airmass to the area this weekend for FL fall
like conditions. Low temperatures drop into the low to mid 60s and
highs will be in the low to mid 80s into next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Breezy winds will produce hazardous marine conditions at times
through the week and into the weekend. Moderately tight pressure
gradient to keep gusty NE-Eerly winds over some coastal waters
around SCEC levels through Thursday with winds around 15-20 knots
and seas 3-5 feet. Gradient tightens increasing winds Friday into
the weekend ahead of a cold front and a SCA may be needed for the
latter part of the week and continuing through Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm temps and humid surface conditions continue with occasionaly
gusty easterly winds and generally low rain chances for mainly
afternoon showers. A cold front is expected to move through the
region this weekend with drier conditions early next week, however
RH values should remain above critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  75  90  74 /  10   0  10  10
FMY  91  75  89  73 /  20   0  40  20
GIF  90  73  88  73 /  10   0  30  20
SRQ  91  73  89  73 /  10   0  20  10
BKV  91  69  88  70 /  10   0  20  10
SPG  88  75  87  74 /  10   0  10  10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Shiveley

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion