Hendersonville North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

313
FXUS62 KGSP 100504
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
104 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure lingers over the region today with below
normal temperatures sticking around. A coastal develops off the
Southeast United States and lifts northward towards the Outer Banks
this weekend. This system may bring rain to the western North
Carolina Piedmont and eastern South Carolina Upstate this weekend
before dry conditions return next week. A warming trend develops
Sunday into Tuesday with above normal temperatures returning after
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1200 AM Friday: A southern stream shortwave trough and
associated closed upper low will continue to slide across Georgia
today and towards the southeast coast by tomorrow morning. At the
surface, sprawling high pressure centered over New England will
gradually shift offshore with surface ridging extending down the
spine of the Appalachians. Meanwhile, an inverted surface pressure
trough resides along the southeast coast in the vicinity of a
coastal baroclinic zone. Height falls overspreading the coast will
help induce surface cyclogenesis just off the central Florida coast
late in the period tonight. Widespread precipitation within the
inverted trough will remain well to our east today with dry
northerly flow persisting across the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia. The far outer cloud shield associated with the developing
coastal cyclone will spread inland with increasing cloud cover
especially along and east of I-77. The surface pressure gradient
will also remain tight between the surface ridging and coastal
cyclone which will continue to foster gusty winds through the near
term period. Otherwise, temperatures will remain below average today
and tonight with daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s and overnight
lows falling into the mid 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Warming Trend Begins Over the Weekend
2) Rain Chances Increasing for the Eastern Third of the Forecast Area
3) Breezy NE Winds Continue East of the Mountains through Sunday
Main change to the forecast compared to this time yesterday is that
both the high-res and global models are trending more westward with
the coastal low off the Southeast United States this weekend. Thus,
the NBM now has chance PoPs mainly along and near the I-77 corridor
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. PoPs may need to be
increased and expanded farther west if this westward trend
continues. For what it`s worth, the 00Z NAMNest shows rain making it
to the mountains by daybreak Sunday. However, confidence on rain
making it that far west remains low, especially with the 00Z HRRR
not going out that far yet. Breezy NE winds linger east of the
mountains through Sunday before gradually diminishing Sunday night
as the coastal low lifts NE away from the Carolinas. A warming trend
develops this weekend but highs Saturday will end up near normal to
just below normal before above normal highs return Sunday. Lows
through the period will end up a few to several degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Warming Trend Continues through Tuesday
2) Temperatures Remain Above Normal
3) Dry Conditions Return
The coastal low remains near the Mid-Atlantic coast through early
next week before pulling away from the eastern United States.
Meanwhile, dry high pressure builds in from the north throughout
next week allowing dry conditions to return. A dry and weak cold
front looks to track across the forecast area in the middle of next
week, with very little fanfare. Warming trend continues through
Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday with slightly
cooler highs on Thursday. Both highs and lows will remain several
degrees above normal through most of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period at all terminals. Mostly clear skies will continue overnight
with cloud cover gradually increasing during the day into tonight as
a mid/upper-level cloud shield expands into the area from the east.
Ceilings are expected to remain VFR, however, with no impacts
expected. Otherwise, northerly winds will remain gusty through the
period with occasional gusts through the rest of the overnight and
frequent gusts again during the daytime. A few gusts of 20-24kts
cannot be ruled out.
Outlook: Dry and generally VFR conditions prevail this weekend aside
from the possibility of valley fog/stratus near daybreak and a small
chance of low impact SHRA Saturday night near KCLT.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...TW

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion