Hartshorne, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

822
FXUS64 KTSA 240528
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Heavy rainfall potential will continue through early Wednesday
morning across western Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma, with a
threat for localized flooding.
- Scattered thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon with passage
of upper level trough. Severe weather not expected.
- Temperatures drop below normal mid week, rising back above normal
by early next week with dry conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Potential for severe weather has largely ended this evening, though
clusters of elevated convection will continue through tonight from
northwest AR into southeast OK ahead of Pacific cold front. The
threat of additional pockets of heavy rainfall continues along and
ahead of this boundary through much of tonight however with a
corridor of 2 inch plus Pwat extending from central AR to south
central OK. Some areal flooding continues in parts of northwest AR
where 3 to 5 inches of rainfall occurred earlier today, so any
additional rain at all will exacerbate these conditions. Was able
to cancel the Flood Watch for a good portion of eastern OK, with
remaining watch still in effect until 12z Wednesday.
Some showers will continue early Wednesday across southeast OK
within the plume of deep moisture that will continue to be
suppressed south with time. Additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated Wed afternoon into the evening
generally north of I-40, as pocket of colder temps aloft associated
with the upper trough moves across the area. Otherwise a much more
comfortable afternoon can be expected with highs mostly in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Once we move past Wednesday, the upper trough will move off to the
east and ridging aloft sets up for the remainder of the week and
likely through the weekend. Temperatures will begin to climb back up
above normal again by the weekend, but at least humidity will be
lower.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Scattered showers and storms are likely to persist through the
overnight hours especially south of Interstate 40. Low clouds and
periods of fog and/or drizzle will also overspread the terminals
tonight trending to IFR/LIFR conditions toward sunrise at most
sites. Flight conditions will remain low through the morning with
a slow improvement forecast into the afternoon. Scattered showers
and isolated storms likely during the afternoon across NE OK and
NW AR. Expect ceilings to impact flight levels past sunset with
potential they could return to lower levels as drier air is slow
to spread eastward through the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  61  80  59 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   81  63  81  60 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   81  61  79  56 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   75  56  80  54 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   76  58  77  53 /  40  20  10   0
BYV   75  59  75  54 /  60  20  10   0
MKO   78  61  79  56 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   75  58  78  55 /  60  20   0   0
F10   79  59  79  55 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   79  62  79  59 /  30  10   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ068-069-072-074-
     076.
AR...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion