Harriman, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

002
FXUS61 KOKX 221444
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1044 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in place through tonight. A cold front
approaching from the west on Tuesday will pass through into
Wednesday and then stall to the south. Slow moving low pressure
will impact the region Thursday through Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Elongated surface ridge extends from off the New England coast,
down through the Northeast and Mid Atlantic today.
Low clouds with bases 4-5 kft have actually expanded east into
NYC and SW CT, but should start to erode through the late
morning and early afternoon. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies
expected through the day, with afternoon high temps topping out
in the 70s. With the axis of the high just to our SE, a light
SE-S flow should persist, and help nudge dewpoints into the 60s
by tonight. With this, temps tonight won`t be as cool as
previous nights, with lows in the upper 50s and 60s. Can`t rule
out low stratus developing in some areas late.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Region lies on the western periphery of mid level ridging to
start Tuesday, though heights fall into the afternoon as a
weak shortwave translates east. With it, surface cold front
approaches through the day, likely instigating scattered
convection. Abundant Gulf moisture streams in with deep layer SW
flow developing and PWATs climbing above 1.5 inches.
Ahead of the fropa, expect a seasonably warm day, with afternoon
highs into the upper 70s and lower 80s, or up to 10 degrees
above normal. It will also be noticeably more humid with the
moist air mass in place, and dew pts increase from the 50s on
Monday into the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday afternoon.
The ridging should help preclude any rain locally, at least
outside the LoHud Valley, through the morning hours. Modest
instability looks to develop into the afternoon, particularly NW
of NYC, and could help to produce a few thunderstorms with the
convection, but severe weather is not anticipated. The showers
and possible thunderstorms likely linger into the evening, if
not the first part of the night.
The front crosses the region late Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning, and flow veers N in response. Could see some
lingering wet weather into the morning behind the front as it
slows and stalls over the Mid Atlantic, but the day isn`t a
washout. Dependent on the precip and cloud cover, another warm
afternoon is expected, highs generally into the mid to upper
70s. Approaching frontal system well off to the west
reintroduces additional rain chances Wednesday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:
* Slow moving low pressure should impact the region.
* Chances of showers persist through much of the period with
  scattered thunderstorms also possible Thursday night into
  Friday. Timing and coverage of rainfall remains uncertain.
* Daytime high temps will be near normal, with nighttime lows
  slightly above normal due to cloud cover and any rainfall.
NBM was followed through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains off the New England and Mid Atlantic
coasts through tonight.
VFR.
Light and variable to light NE winds become southerly remaining
10 kt or less. Winds then become more S-SW early this evening,
possibly light and variable at the outlying terminals by late
evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift to the south, especially at KJFK and KLGA,
may be off around an hour.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: MVFR cond possible with showers becoming likely late
day and at night. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms late
day and into the evening.
Wednesday through Friday: MVFR with chance of showers.
Thunderstorms possible Thursday night into Friday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA expanded to include all ocean waters for swells building to
5 ft this afternoon due to long period swells from distant
Hurricane Gabrielle well offshore. Please refer to the
National Hurricane Center for official forecasts on Gabrielle.
Elevated seas should persist through at Wednesday morning, if
not further into the day.
Sub advisory conditions then expected on all waters from Thu
through Fri night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Tuesday
afternoon and evening could produce locally heavy downpours
that result in brief nuisance flooding in urban and poor
drainage locales, mainly across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson
Valley. Antecedent conditions have been notably dry, and the
risk for flash flooding is low.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip current development today and
Tuesday at the ocean beaches as a long period 4-5 ft SE swell
arrives from distant Hurricane Gabrielle.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...BG/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/MET
MARINE...BG/DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion