696 FXUS63 KMKX 261909 AFDMKXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 209 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temps and dry weather expected through the weekend and into next week.
- Potential for patchy to areas of fog, including some dense fog at times, to develop overnight into early Saturday morning.
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.SHORT TERM... Issued 210 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Tonight through Saturday night:
Stratus deck behind the backdoor cold front halted and will continue across east central WI for the remainder of the afternoon. Rest of southern WI is experience sunshine and temps warming into the upper 70s and low 80s. Cooler temps and calm winds are expected into the overnight hours. The lingering cloud deck across east-central WI may spread south and inland overnight and may be accompanied by patchy to areas of fog development given the light winds and increased low-level moisture with a quick passing surface high. Fog would linger into Saturday morning before lifting after daybreak as warmer, southerly winds gradually pick up into the afternoon. Looking at summer-like temps for Saturday with high creeping into the low to mid 80s for Saturday afternoon.
Meanwhile a mid-level shortwave trough and surface low is progged to traverse across Ontario through the day. As it pushes further east the associated cold front is progged to drift southward across southern WI Saturday evening/night. However, given the dry conditions not expect any precip associated with this frontal passage and mainly will see a westerly wind shift along with a cooler airmass as high pressure begins to build in overnight. Looking at lows Saturday night into Sunday morning in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Wagner
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.LONG TERM... Issued 210 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Sunday through Friday:
Continue to see the surface high build into the Great Lakes Region for Sunday and slowly progress east through the start of next week. Will also see an upper-level ridge sets up across the Upper Midwest and linger into the middle of next week. Accompanying this pattern will be temps gradually warming each day from mid 70s Sunday into the low/mid 80s Monday/Tuesday. Looking at another high pressure system to build down from Canada by midweek and bring more easterly winds, which could result in cooler temps midweek onward. However, this will also be dependent on the tropical systems in the Atlantic and their tracks as the slower solutions would enhances our easterly/cooler flow, but if the more progressive model materializes, southern WI may end up warmer than the current forecast keeping the easterly winds further north.
Overall, looking at a dry, fairly inactive pattern (no rain chances) with near to above normal temps this weekend through the middle of next week.
Wagner
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.AVIATION... Issued 210 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Stratus deck and MVFR flight conditions held up across east- central WI this afternoon limiting impacts just to SBM. Rest of southern WI terminals will experience VFR conditions through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening. However, models are progging this cloud deck to become more progressive overnight into Saturday morning as high pressure quickly skirts through the area. This may end up bringing lower ceilings (between VFR/MVFR) along with patchy fog to inland terminals. Still some concerns about how widespread these impacts will be, but MSN, JVL, and UES have a higher potential to see lower flight conditions as a result. While SBM, MKE, and are less likely, they may end up seeing some patchy fog as well, just not as confident closer to the lakefront at this time. Otherwise, conditions are progged to improve through Saturday morning as warmer, southerly winds gradually pick up ahead of dry cold front passing through the area late Saturday afternoon/evening.
Wagner
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.MARINE... Issued 210 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
High pressure will quickly skirt across Lake Michigan this evening/overnight bringing lighter winds. High pressure will trek into Quebec by Saturday morning, while sub-1000mb low pressure tracks across northern Ontario through the day Saturday. Will see more southerly winds gradually pick up ahead this system`s dry cold front, which will push across the Upper Great Lakes late Saturday afternoon into the overnight. Another high pressure is expected to quickly build in behind this frontal passage for Sunday with lighter and variable winds. Will see this high pressure gradually work eastward through the start of next week with a return of southerly winds Monday and Tuesday. Easterly winds may return toward the middle of next week as another stronger high pressure builds down across the Great Lakes region.
Wagner
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.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. &&
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion