Hackett, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

538
FXUS64 KTSA 221825
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
125 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible late tonight into
    Tuesday morning with heavy rainfall for northeast Oklahoma and
    northwest Arkansas.
- Flood Watch in effect for northeast Oklahoma, northwest
    Arkansas, and west-central Arkansas from 1 AM Tues. until 7
    AM Wed.
- Additional storms, severe weather, and heavy rains continue
    Tuesday associated with an approaching cold front.
- Temperatures drop below to near normal by midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Isolated moderate-heavy showers that have been pushing across
southeast OK and west-central AR are finally beginning to move
eastward out of the forecast area. Hi-res model guidance suggest
spotty convection may develop through this afternoon, mainly
across far eastern OK and western/northwestern AR, with little to
no impacts expected. Otherwise, the forecast for today looks on
track, with afternoon highs ranging from mid-upper 80s in the
southwest/western periphery of the CWA to upper-70s/lower-80s in
the northeast portion of the forecast area.
By this evening/tonight, mid/upper-level ridging will transition
to more zonal flow as a vigorous low digs over the Rockies. As
this occurs, a shortwave trough will ripple across the
Southern/Central Plains in the zonal flow. Modest to strong upper-
level divergence will be associated with the incoming trough, with
modest to strong mid/upper-level wind flow. In addition, a strong
low-level jet will begin to develop after sunset this evening,
enhancing low-level warm air and moisture advection into the
region. Showers and thunderstorms will initially develop across
northwest OK by early-mid evening and propagate eastward into
northeast OK with time. With a plethora of CAPE/shear/moisture/lift,
strong to severe thunderstorms appear probable as these storms
move into the area. However, trends in convective allowing models
show storms will be decreasing in intensity as they move across
northeast OK and eventually into far northwest AR around daybreak
Tuesday. Regardless, damaging wind gusts and large hail will be
the primary threats with any organized storms. With modest low-
level shear also in place, there will be a limited tornado threat
as well, mainly north of I-44 early on as storms move into the
CWA.
In addition to the severe threat tonight, heavy rainfall is
expected and will likely be a more widespread threat beginning
late tonight into Tuesday morning. Latest model and ensemble
guidance suggests a swath of 1 to 3 inches may fall across
northeast OK by the end of the short-term period, locally higher
in spots. A Flood Watch has been issued for all of northeast OK
and of northwest and west-central AR from 1 AM Tuesday until 7 AM
Wednesday.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm will be ongoing
Tuesday morning across portions of northeast OK and northwest AR.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing marginally severe wind
gusts (60 mph) and large hail (1 inch in diameter) and and heavy
rainfall leading to flooding. This may disrupt and impact the
morning work commute. A potent surface low will shift from
western OK and into northeast OK during the daytime Tuesday and
will drag a cold front through the forecast by mid-late afternoon
and into the evening time frame. Strong warm air advection,
plenty of low-level moisture and shear, and a fairly unstable
airmass will help produce strong to severe thunderstorms along and
just ahead of the advancing cold front in the afternoon. At this
time, the zone where severe thunderstorms will be possible will
generally be along and south of the I-44 corridor beginning early-
mid afternoon. The stronger discrete and clustered storms will be
capable of producing all weather hazards, with damaging wind
gusts (up to 70 mph) and large hail (up to ping pong ball sized)
being the primary hazards. With modest to strong low-level shear
present, a limited tornado threat will also exist through at least
the early evening hours. In addition, moderate to heavy rainfall
will remain possible and may lead to flooding or flash flooding.
Much of the severe and flooding threat will end by late Tuesday
night or early Wednesday morning as the cold front pushes through
and storms begin to exit to the east. A few showers and storms may
linger through Wednesday afternoon as the main upper-level trough
axis moves across the area.
Much more quiet and dry weather is in store by Wednesday night and
through the rest of the long-term period as mid/upper-level
ridging moves overhead. Temperatures will be warm Tuesday ahead of
the approaching cold front. Behind the front, temperatures will
fall below average Wednesday and Thursday (highs in the upper-70s
and lower-80s) before rising closer to average Friday and the
upcoming weekend (highs in the low-mid 80s).
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The main impact in the TAFs during the forecast period will be from
an expected TSRA complex late tonight into Tuesday morning.
The complex is expected to affect mainly NE OK and far NW AR sites.
Gusty winds and lower vsbys main impact. Some MVFR cigs are expected
in the wake of the complex as well. Another round of storm impacts
are expected just beyond the scope of this forecast.
Lacy
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  85  66  78 /  60  80  50  30
FSM   72  87  71  81 /  40  70  90  40
MLC   73  90  67  80 /  20  60  80  30
BVO   67  81  63  76 /  70  90  40  30
FYV   66  80  63  76 /  60  90  90  50
BYV   67  76  64  74 /  60  90  90  50
MKO   71  85  66  77 /  50  70  70  30
MIO   67  77  64  76 /  70  90  60  40
F10   71  87  65  77 /  40  70  70  30
HHW   72  90  68  80 /  10  30  80  40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning for
     OKZ054>072-074-076.
AR...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion