Grulla, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

670
FXUS64 KBRO 260400 CCA
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1100 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1027 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- Drier forecast overall, but with some unsettled weather possible
  likely most afternoons along the seabreeze boundaries east of
  US-281, with the highest chances closer to the coast.
- Comfortable temperatures persist as east-northeasterly winds
  maintain lower relative humidity.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
In comparison to the previous weeks, an overall drier forecast is
expected across Deep South Texas over the next 7 days, though there
remains a chance of showers and thunderstorms most days east of US-
281 along the seabreeze boundary through the afternoon, with the
highest chances closer to the coast. Slight upper level divergence
from a departing trough over the eastern CONUS and lift provided
from a frontal boundary lingering near the Rio Grande Valley have
the potential to generate a low (15-20%) chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms for southern portions of the lower RGV and
SPI through the mid-morning and early afternoon hours today. By
this evening, ridging behind the trough takes over, pushing the
front further south, filtering in drier air behind it and keeping
mostly dry conditions across all of the region through the daytime
Sunday, with PoP`s less than 10%. Chances of rain increase a bit
for the beginning of the week as weak coastal troughing results
from upper level divergence and energy from shortwaves moving over
southern-central Texas, leading to a low to medium (15-30%)
chance Sunday night into Monday. Chances decrease to a low
(15-20%) chance Tuesday through Thursday as mid-level ridging
builds over the CWA from an expanding mid-level high pressure over
northwestern Mexico. PoP`s could increase towards the end of the
work week next week as mid-level ridging may break down.
One last day of above average high temperatures (upper 90`s) is
anticipated today for the mid/upper RGV and the Rio Grande as the
front lingers nearby. As the front pushes south of the region by
this evening, east-northeasterly winds in its wake will aid in
filtering drier air southward, making for comfortable conditions for
the remainder of the forecast with near to slightly below average
highs, only reaching the upper 80`s and low 90`s in the beginning of
next week, before rising to the low/mid 90`s as the week progresses.
Lows in the upper 60`s to lower 70`s persist.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Scattered to broken VFR conditions continue at this time across
all terminals and are expected to remain so throughout the TAF
cycle, outside of the low potential (20-30%) for a passing shower
or two detailed in the PROB30 for KBRO late tonight as the
frontal boundary lingers nearby. Light and variable, or calm,
winds are likely tonight before picking up to a gentle
northeasterly breeze by tomorrow afternoon, around 5-10 knots with
gusts of 15-20 knots possible along with a few high clouds.
Additionally, there is a low possibility of brief fog at KBRO
around sunrise.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Favorable marine conditions prevail through the forecast period as
mainly gentle northeasterly to easterly winds continue to result in
slight (1-3 feet) seas. A low to medium (20-40) chance of showers
and thunderstorms returns Sunday night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             75  91  74  91 /  40  20  10  10
HARLINGEN               72  93  70  93 /  30  20   0  10
MCALLEN                 75  98  74  96 /  20  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         72  97  72  96 /  20  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  87  80  87 /  40  20  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     74  89  74  89 /  30  20  10  10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...65-Irish

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion