Grover, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

789
FXUS62 KGSP 280013
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
813 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front remains along the Carolina coast through the
weekend as high pressure briefly builds into the forecast area,
bringing drier conditions for Sunday. A tropical system will drift
north toward South Carolina, but may stall near the coast.
Confidence remains low on whether there will be any significant
impacts to the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia early
next week. The storm is expected to begin drifting east off the
coast later in the week, as high pressure builds in from the
north.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Saturday: Have some lingering scattered showers
with embedded thunder at times across the SW SC Upstate and
along/near I-77 this evening. This activity will continue to wane
over the next hour or so before dry conditions return. Lows tonight
will end up 10-12 degrees above-normal despite clearing skies. Could
see some patchy to locally dense fog as well as low stratus develop
later tonight into daybreak Sunday as we will have better
radiational cooling conditions in place. Confidence is highest
across the mountain valleys as well as for any areas that saw
convection today.
Otherwise, a ridge will deepen over the Mid-MS Valley as surface
high pressure rides underneath it. This will act to filter in drier
air as northeasterly flow develops at the surface through the
period. This will suppress convective east of the mountains but
isolated to scattered convection should still develop across the
mountains during peak heating Sunday. Better insolation will allow
afternoon highs climb a few degrees above normal. Wind speeds will
gradually increase throughout Sunday, with some intermittent low-end
gusts possible from the late morning to early evening hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1:30 PM EDT Saturday: Confidence is increasing that TD Nine
(which will likely become Imelda in the next day or so) will
drift north toward the SC coast, but then stall as high pressure
builds over the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. The storm may also
interact with Hurricane Humberto, which will be re-curving off the
east coast. Some most of the 12z guidance and latest ensembles
are trending toward having Imelda make a sharp turn to the east
before making landfall (and that is the latest NHC forecast). With
that said, there are still a handful of ensemble members that sneak
Imelda all the way to the coast and possibly drifting inland. Even
with the latest forecast keeping the center of Imelda just offshore,
easterly flow around the north side of its circulation will advect
a band of moisture across central NC and into at least the eastern
half of the forecast area Monday. The PWATs will ramp up to 1.5-2.0"
along the I-77 corridor Monday into Tuesday. The 12z GFS has an axis
of 2-4" of QPF in about 24 hours ending 00z Wed. But other guidance
keeps the heavier QPF closer to the coast. The Day 3 Slight Risk
on the Excessive Rainfall Outlooks over our southeastern part of
the forecast area looks good. Otherwise, it will be wedge-like
across the forecast area, as a 1022-1025 mb high persists across
northern Mid-Atlantic and eastern Great Lakes, keeping a breezy
NE flow and plenty of cloud cover from the moist easterly flow
aloft. Highs will be 5-8 degrees below normal, except near normal
in the central and western NC mountain valleys. And lows will be
8-12 deg above normal across the entire area.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1:45 PM EDT Saturday: Forecast confidence is increasing
that the tropical system, which will likely be Imelda, will get
pushed east off the coast mid to late next week. This will be
thanks to strong high pressure building in from the north, and
possibly due to some influence from Hurricane Humberto which may
help pull the low as it makes its closest approach to the east
(but still hundreds of miles offshore). With that said, there are
still some ensemble members and hurricane models that bring Imelda
onshore and stall in somewhere in the area, which could result
in rain chances lingering longer than the latest forecast. But
those solutions appear to be the less likely scenario. As such,
the latest NBM has come in drier for Wednesday and the rest of the
week. Assuming the sfc high to our north wins out, PoPs taper to
20% or lower and temps trend further below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are lingering east of the NC mountains as of 00Z.
Activity will gradually wane over the next hour or two. This
lingering activity will not impact the terminals. Otherwise, mostly
dry conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period as high
pressure builds briefly into the region. Should see cigs lower again
overnight for across the majority of the terminals overnight into
daybreak Sunday, with the exception of KAND as VFR should continue.
Cigs should gradually drop to IFR to MVFR levels overnight through
early Sunday morning, with MVFR to IFR vsbys developing, mainly
across the NC terminals. Thus, went with TEMPOs everywhere except
KAND for possible restrictions overnight. Fog should lift shortly
after daybreak with cigs gradually improving throughout the morning
hours. VFR cigs should return across the terminals by the late
morning or early afternoon hours. Winds will be light and VRB
through late this evening, before picking up out of the N/NNE during
the early overnight hours. Winds will then toggle more NE after
daybreak. Wind speeds will range from 5-10 kts on Sunday, with
intermittent low-end gusts possible during the afternoon and early
evening hours. However, confidence is too low to mention gusts
across the terminals at this time.
Outlook: Fog and low stratus are possible each morning, mainly in
the mountain valleys and for any locations that received heavy
rainfall the night prior. Confidence remains low on whether there
will be any restrictions from a tropical system early next week.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/ARK
NEAR TERM...AR/CAC
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...AR

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion