Greig, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

766
FXUS61 KBUF 290607
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
207 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will guarantee fair dry weather through the entire
week and this weekend. A dry cold front will bring a more seasonable
airmass around midweek with some risk for nocturnal frost at the
higher elevations. Temperatures then climb back above normal later
in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sfc high pressure will remain anchored over the eastern Great Lakes
today ahead of an amplifying mid-level ridge over the CONUS`
midsection and ON/QC. A stronger secondary 1032mb sfc high will then
begin to build southeast from northern Ontario overnight tonight.
This will ensure the warm, dry pattern continues right through the
period with just some added high clouds later today. Typical
nocturnal valley fog can also be expected early this AM and again
tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A moisture starved cold front drops through the region Tuesday,
with a cooler airmass advecting into the region. Strong sfc
ridge builds southeast towards the Lower Lakes and New England
Wednesday. Expect dry weather and seasonable conditions with
highs found in the 60s for most locales.
Clear skies and good radiational cooling will take place Wednesday
night, with lows in the 30s to low 40s. Some frost will be possible
in the wind sheltered areas well inland from the lakes overnight.
Sfc ridge will continue to settle south and southeast towards the
Mid-Alantic Thursday, which will provide dry weather through the
remainder of the work week. As it settles south of the region, it
will promote a gradual warming trend with temperatures climbing back
above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc high pressure will maintain fair dry weather over the weekend
and into next week. Highs temps will once again climb well above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR will prevail through the 06z TAF cycle in most areas and TAF
sites as strong sfc high pressure remains anchored over the region.
Primary exceptions will be in fog development early this morning and
again tonight.
For this morning, typical nocturnal valley fog in the Southern Tier
may result in IFR/LIFR restrictions at KJHW. Fog development is
also expected southeast of Lake Ontario (KFZY) where Td depressions
are low. Confidence remains low in potential impacts to vsbys at
KART. Any fog will burn off within a few hours of sunrise with
areawide VFR returning by around 14z.
A similar story expected in terms of fog development after 00z this
evening, though an approaching cold front from the north could limit
the fog potential across the North Country with increasing wind
flow late in the night.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog and local IFR
possible each late night through the morning hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will remain directly over the eastern Great
Lakes through the day today bringing light, variable winds and quiet
weather.
A stronger secondary area of high pressure will begin to build
southeastward from northern Ontario tonight, then slowly drift
across the Northeast through much of the week. Northeast winds will
increase starting Tuesday as the gradient between this high and a
complex tropical weather environment off the Southeast coast. This
will likely cause SCA conditions to develop on at least a portion of
Lake Ontario, though the chop will notably increase along the
southern portions of both lakes.
A dry cold front moving across the lakes Tuesday night will cause
northeast winds to strengthen with more solid and widespread SCA
criteria expected. Winds and wave action will relax some during the
day Wednesday though remain elevated through Wednesday night.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PP
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion