Gratis, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

381
FXUS61 KILN 242310
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
710 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of disturbances will keep rainfall in the forecast across
the region through Thursday, with the heaviest rainfall occurring
along the Ohio River region. Drier conditions are expected for
Friday and into the beginning of next week with only minimal
precipitation chances.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A boundary stretched across the Ohio Valley from southwest to
northeast will be the primary influencer of our weather for the next
day or so. As a disturbance moves along this boundary during the
overnight hours tonight, precipitation coverage and intensity will
increase, particularly for areas along and southeast of I-70 (though,
all areas will likely receive some rain).
Deterministic guidance suggests anywhere from 0.5 to 1.0 in. along
and south of the Ohio River, with the highest QPF footprint a bit
farther south, in JKL and LMK`s regions. However, cannot rule out
some locally heavy rainfall with any stronger cells in our area during
the overnight hours tonight, especially given PWATS in the 90th
percentile for this time of year and a very saturated column. While
most areas need the rainfall and are still in drought status, some
quick runoff may produce ponding or localized flooding issues.
Guidance hits pretty hard on some low ceilings tonight, so low level
stratus is expected and we may see some foggy/misty conditions for
all areas during the overnight. Remember to leave extra space if
driving!
Previous discussion--->
Isolated to scattered rain shower activity will be around through
the day. Instability is somewhat limited initially, however there are
some breaks in the clouds in Indiana. Due to this took out thunder
mention during the first part of the forecast, however left in later
in the day.
A disturbance will bring more widespread rain to the region tonight
especially near and south of the Ohio River. Will continue heavy
rain mention in the HWO, however fine tuned location to focus more on
the southern portions of the region. Temperatures in the 70s are
expected today and lows tonight in the 60s across most locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Another disturbance will move through on Thursday bringing
additional rainfall chances to the region, especially across
southeastern portions of the region near and southeast of Interstate
71.
High temperatures in the 70s are expected and lows Thursday night in
the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An expansive surface high pressure ridge will extend from Ontario
and the Great Lakes region down through the lower Mississippi Valley
on Friday. This ridge axis will remain in place into the weekend
before beginning to gradually erode away from the southwest through
early next week. Meanwhile, a trough axis in the mid and upper
levels will gradually transition into a weak cut off low over the
Tennessee Valley through the weekend. While the better chance for
pcpn with this looks to remain to our south and east, a few showers
may sneak into our southeast areas over the weekend so will allow
for some lower end pops there.
Some uncertainty develops in the models through early to mid next
week with how the mid/upper low over the Tennessee Valley will
eventually evolve and interact with some potential tropical energy
off the Southeast coast. Again though, it looks like any pcpn with
this should remain off to our southeast as upper level ridging will
likely begin to build into our area from the northwest.
Temperatures will remain seasonable to a few degrees above normal
through much of the period with daytime highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s and overnight lows mostly in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tricky forecast in store as a boundary is stretched across the Ohio
Valley from the southwest to the northeast. As this system progresses
northeast, reduced CIGs, VSBYs, and moderate to heavy rainfall are
likely at times across all sites.
PRECIP: Scattered showers across the region this evening will
increase in both coverage and intensity as we head into the
overnight, from the southwest toward northeast. Precipitation may be
heavy at times; bulk of precip should fall as stratiform so kept
SHRA in the TAFs, however, cannot rule out the odd rumble of thunder.
Widespread precip tapers off shortly after sunrise Thursday morning,
leaving scattered showers for the late morning/early afternoon hours
before the area dries out Thursday evening.
CIGs/VSBYs: Low end VFR to patchy MVFR CIGs continue this evening
then will drop overnight; a period if IFR conditions is expected with
rainfall tonight; though it is possible that sites along I-70 (KDAY
KCMH KLCK) may even hit LIFR CIGs as low level stratus develops. Held
off on including this in the TAFs for now due to lack of confidence
on how close to ground stratus will get. Expect periods of
mist/fog/low stratus at all sites at times during the overnight.
WINDS: Light and variable winds less than 5 knots expected through
the overnight hours. Winds become northwesterly after daybreak on
Thursday, increasing to around 10 knots.
OUTLOOK...Patchy fog is possible early Friday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS... /CA
NEAR TERM... /CA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CA

NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion