Grand Rapids, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

185
FXUS61 KCLE 230139
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
939 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain on the warm side of a stalled front over the
central Great Lakes region through tonight. This front will get
pushed southeast on Tuesday and stall over the local area Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Low pressure will move northeast along this
front on Wednesday into Thursday and the front will exit east by
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM Update...
The most widespread rain is now largely east of I-71, however
a southwest to northeast-oriented line of showers has started
to develop on the trailing edge of the precipitation shield.
This should fill in into the overnight so have adjusted PoPs to
account for latest radar and high res guidance trends. In
general, these changes have resulted in lower PoPs across NW OH
overnight with likely to categorical PoPs continuing in eastern
zones. Clearing will likely develop in dry areas overnight and
efficient radiational cooling and plenty of lingering low-level
moisture will result in patchy to areas of fog which will
likely be dense in spots. Confidence in visibilities of half a
mile or less across the westernmost tier or two of local
counties is increasing and a dense fog SPS will probably be
needed overnight into early Tuesday morning. Confidence in the
potential for quarter mile or less visibilities in this area has
increased a bit, so a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed during
the morning commute, but would like to see how observations
trend over the next few hours before making final headline
decisions.
Previous Discussion...
The main concern in the near term will be a line of showers
with some thunderstorms moving through the eastern half of the
forecast area. The air mass ahead of this line has been
marginally conducive for strengthening storms with ample
clearing across the region this afternoon, allowing for a
slightly more conditionally unstable air mass. In addition,
there is a slight increase in low- and mid-level winds with a
shortwave moving through the region, which has allowed for the
shear to increase. Will continue to monitor this line of
convection for stronger cores and cell mergers which could allow
for some strong to severe wind gusts or some marginal hail.
However, the remaining area that is vulnerable is shrinking
quickly with this line of convection overtaking the region.
Behind the main line of convection, light stratiform rain is
overtaking the region. The axis of this rain will slowly shift
east through the evening into tonight with the focus eventually
over the eastern portion of the forecast area. Northwest Ohio
has a chance to dry out late tonight into Tuesday; however,
ample low level moisture will allow for widespread low stratus
and fog to form, which may pose a hazard to the Tuesday morning
commute. For Tuesday, the main area of stratiform rain will push
east with the mid-level shortwave and the area will be south of
the upper low over the upper Great Lakes, which means that there
will be a minimum in forcing for additional rain. Cannot rule
out rain or even a storm lingering in the region or firing off
a lake boundary, but the trends in rain are down and have mostly
20-30% PoPs by afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast period will feature multiple additional
rounds of rainfall for the area, as a low pressure system lifts
northeast along the stalled frontal boundary with support from a
closed upper low over the Great Lakes region. Wednesday should
feature a widespread round of rainfall and some possible
embedded thunderstorms as a shortwave ripples around the upper
low and over the area. Total rainfall across the region on
Wednesday continues to trend higher with most areas likely
receiving 0.50-1.00" of rain with efficient rainfall. For
Thursday, the upper low over the Great Lakes will open up into a
trough and progress eastward through the eastern Lakes and Ohio
Valley. This trough will support pushing the front east as a
cold front and allow for another round of scattered showers and
some potential thunderstorms. Given coverage concerns, will have
PoPs slightly lower on Thursday, as compared to Wednesday, but
should still be in the likely category for the eastern half of
the area. Temperatures will be generally seasonable with highs in
the low-to-mid 70s although repeated rounds of precipitation may
keep the general flavor of temperatures in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For Friday, the upper trough axis will continue to swing through
the forecast area and may allow for some showers to still be in
the region until it exits. For the weekend into Monday, the
trend is dry with the next system missing the area to the north
and high pressure moving over the local area. Temperatures will
still be seasonable in the 70s with the air mass behind the
mid-week front and upper trough only marginally cooler and
quickly recovering for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Stratiform rain will continue to move east/northeast across the
area this evening, although rain has ended at KTOL/KFDY. Expect
the main precip shield to erode from the west during the first
few hours of the TAF period, although high res guidance suggests
that additional showers will likely develop from roughly to
KCLE to KMFD eastward tonight tonight into early Tuesday. Either
way, the main aviation hazard will be related to the
development of low stratus and patchy to areas of fog, primarily
at KTOL/KFDY. MVFR/IFR visibilities and IFR (possibly LIFR)
ceilings will likely develop areawide at some point tonight, but
the highest likelihood of LIFR conditions will be at KTOL/KFDY,
where visibilities may drop to as low as 1/2SM to 1/4SM at
times tonight into Tuesday morning. Any fog should gradually
diminish after diurnal mixing develops after sunrise Tuesday,
but IFR/MVFR ceilings will likely persist through Tuesday
morning before skies begin to clear a bit Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening. A few showers and storms could develop across
interior NE OH/NW PA Tuesday afternoon, but confidence in the
placement and coverage of any precip is too low to include in
the TAFs at this point.
Tonight, winds across interior Ohio will be out of the south at
5 to 10 knots with light and variable winds likely closer to
the lakeshore and across NW OH. Winds are expected to become
westerly Tuesday afternoon, however wind speeds will remain
below 10 knots through the remainder of the TAF period.
Outlook...Periodic non-VFR conditions possible through Friday
with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions across Lake Erie will be fairly quiet through this week,
though showers and thunderstorms could be locally higher winds and
waves.
Winds will predominately out of the southwest at 10-15 knots today
and Tuesday then becoming southeasterly at 5-10 knots by late
Tuesday night. By late Wednesday night winds will shift to be more
easterly and increase to 10-15 knots across the lake. A low pressure
system will move across the region late Wednesday into early
Thursday and winds will shift to be out of the northwest throughout
the day Thursday behind the passing cold front. High pressure will
begin to build into the region moving into the weekend and winds
will become lighter, generally less than 10 knots and out of the
southwest.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...15/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...15
MARINE...23

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion