Gooding, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

468
FXUS65 KBOI 301542
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
938 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.DISCUSSION...Last night`s cold front, thunderstorms, and heavy
rain (in Idaho) have moved out, leaving behind a cooler, moist,
and still unstable air mass, with patchy fog in the valleys.
Showers add a couple lightning strikes have already occurred
this morning north and west of Boise. These will be tracking
NNE and develop into numerous, but generally light, rain
showers and 20 to 30 percent coverage of thunderstorms this
afternoon in the northern part of our CWA, mainly in Idaho.
Showers will continue across northern areas this evening as
another, weakening, Pacific cold front passes through.
Wednesday and Thursday look relatively quiet with temperatures
near normal, but another rain event is shaping up for Friday
and Friday night along a new cold front expected to form
across northern Nevada and south-central Idaho. This front
will mark the leading edge of an even cooler air mass this
weekend as the main low off the NW coast deepens and moves
inland.
&&
.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. MVFR/IFR conditions in fog/low stratus
this morning, near KBNO, KONO, and mountain valleys. Mountains
obscured in fog/precip. Conditions improving after 16z. Isolated
to scattered showers/thunderstorms continuing throughout the
day. Thunderstorms this afternoon capable of 30 kt outflows.
Surface winds: SE-SW 5-15 kt, gusting to 20-25 kt in highlands
this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 15-30 kt.
KBOI...VFR. Isolated showers/thunderstorms redeveloping this
afternoon. Thunderstorms capable of producing 30 kt outflows.
Shower/thunderstorms have a 40% chance of affecting the
terminal after Tue/21z. Thunderstorm threat will end by Wed/02z,
although isolated showers will remain in the area. Surface
winds: SE 10-15 kt.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...The front and
accompanying precipitation is exiting to the east this morning,
leaving a wide swath of 0.50-1.00" amounts across SW Idaho,
with lesser amounts (mostly around 0.10" but up to 0.25")
across SE Oregon. For today the focus of precipitation will
be over the mountains of SW Idaho as afternoon instability
feeds scattered shower and thunderstorm development. Southwest
flow aloft will direct showers/storms to the northeast, bringing
activity into the Snake Plain during the afternoon. Slightly
more stable conditions will likely cap development over SE
Oregon today with a 15-25% chance of showers/storms limited to
Baker County. The flow aloft will gusty breezy winds to SE Oregon
and higher terrain of SW Idaho with gusts of 25 to 35 mph this
afternoon. The chance of showers continues Wednesday with better
dynamic forcing expanding coverage, especially across SE
Oregon.
The main trough and accompanying front push onto the Pac NW
coast on Thursday with showers focused in the mountains. It`s
looking more likely that a band of precipitation will form along
the front late Thursday as it briefly stalls across northern NV
and s-central Idaho Thursday night. Forcing along the slow-
moving front, coupled with precipitable water amounts around
one inch, could lead to moderate precipitation across the
western Magic Valley and higher terrain near the ID/NV border
Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures through Thursday are
near normal or slightly below normal.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...An upper low amplifies as
it moves into the Pacific Northwest, providing a very strong
moisture flow in far SW and S-central Idaho Friday morning
through the afternoon. The Magic Valley is still expected to be
directly under the precipitation from the flow, and by the end
of Friday will have 0.25" to 0.50" of rainfall. Given how
narrow the band is, there is a degree of uncertainty in the
forecast if the models shift even slightly. A slight chance of
showers continues through s-central and central Idaho through
Friday evening. Friday night the low moves east and mostly dry
northerly flow streams over the region. Another wave is set to
amplify Sunday night, just clipping central Idaho with enough
moisture for another round of showers. Deterministic models
agree on closing this wave off over central California, putting
us in the dry deformation zone of the pattern. However, model
agreement quickly breaks down after Monday. Temps cool from
Friday to Sunday, with temps Sunday being 10 degrees below
normal. Monday and Tuesday the forecast warms slightly in the
deformation zone.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....NF
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JM

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion