Glendale, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

570
FXUS63 KMKX 281842
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
142 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures continue into next weekend, with slightly
  cooler conditions near Lake Michigan.
- No rain expected through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 145 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Tonight through Monday night:
Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: High pressure is centered over Lake Michigan
early this afternoon, resulting in light east-southeast winds across
most of southern Wisconsin. Subsidence tied to the surface high
allowed dew points to fall quickly through the morning hours, with
some stabilization noted in 1 PM observations. Given southeast-
shifting winds on the back side of the high, anticipate some dew
point recovery through the second half of the afternoon given
modestly higher moisture across northern Illinois. The
aforementioned high will progress east toward Lake Huron tonight,
ultimately moving into the eastern Great Lakes through Monday. The
high`s progression will allow for light south-southwesterly winds to
become established Monday, with a milder air mass advecting in
during the afternoon hours. Thus anticipate high temperatures to be
a touch warmer on Monday compared to today. Readings will be
slightly cooler near Lake Michigan, where a lake breeze is forecast
to mix inland during the later afternoon hours. Patchy ground fog
can`t be ruled out later tonight, particularly in the Wisconsin
Valley & in low-lying spots along the Kettle Moraine.
Tonight: While winds around ~5 MPH should prevent widespread
development, patchy fog can`t be ruled out in the Wisconsin River
Valley & in low-lying spots along the Kettle Moraine. Best window
for patchy fog will be during the predawn hours. Don`t expect
widespread dense fog, but will monitor trends through the overnight
hours.
Quigley
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 145 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Tuesday through Sunday:
Synopsis: Upper ridging will be centered from the Hudson Bay through
the western Great Lakes through the middle week period, with large-
scale subsidence maintaining mostly sunny skies and dry conditions
across southern Wisconsin. The center of the ridge will gradually
work east toward the Saint Lawrence Valley & Appalachians during the
late week time frame as upper troughing attempts to work into the
northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will settle along
the Ontario-Quebec border Tuesday through mid-week, helping to
maintain east-northeast winds across southern Wisconsin. Said high
will progress into the Northeast Thursday through Friday, allowing
winds to turn southerly & a slightly milder air mass to work in from
the Plains. The combination of warm inland temperatures and
prevailing synoptic winds will result in favorable conditions for
lake breezes through at least mid-week. Daytime highs will thus be a
touch cooler near Lake Michigan through at least Wednesday
afternoon.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Afternoon NBM guidance brings slight
chances (~15-20%) for showers/storms back into the area Saturday
night into Sunday as western troughing attempts to work east. Have
maintained these probabilities in the afternoon forecast, but like
yesterday, wouldn`t be surprised to see later forecasts trend drier
with 500 mb heights at/greater than 1.0 standard deviation above
climo lingering into Sunday. Will continue to watch trends through
this week.
Quigley
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 145 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR flight categories prevail at all terminals this afternoon, with
similar conditions continuing through the duration of the period.
Light east to northeasterly winds will continue through the
remainder of the afternoon, becoming lighter after sunset. Patchy
FG/BR can`t be ruled out along the Kettle Moraine & in the Wisconsin
Valley late tonight. Have withheld any prevailing mentions in the
18Z forecast given remaining uncertainty regarding development
locations of FG/BR, but will monitor trends through tonight and make
insertions if conditions warrant. Light south-southwesterly winds
will become established after sunrise Monday, with an easterly
wind shift expected behind the lake breeze at eastern terminals
during the afternoon hours.
Quigley
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 145 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
1023 mb high pressure will drift east across Lower Michigan through
Monday, maintaining light and variable winds across the waters. 1034
mb high pressure will settle along the Ontario-Quebec border on
Tuesday, with winds subsequently shifting out of the east-northeast.
The high will linger in the same vicinity through Wednesday,
maintaining east to northeast winds. The high will drift into the
northeastern United States on Thursday, allowing winds to shift out
of the south across the waters. Southerly winds will continue
through Friday, when 1008 mb low pressure is forecast to develop in
the northern Great Plains. No showers or thunderstorms are forecast
through Friday. Gales are not expected through the entirety of the
period.
Initially light and variable surface winds will turn out of the east-
northeast in nearshore zones Tuesday through Wednesday. Waves may
occasionally approach Small Craft Advisory thresholds Wednesday
through Thursday morning, though conditions aren`t currently
expected to be widespread enough to justify headlines. Trends will
continue to be monitored through the first half of this week.
Quigley
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee

NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion