Glen Rock, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

330
FXUS61 KOKX 191152
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
752 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through today, followed by high pressure building
in to begin the weekend. High pressure moves across and settles east
early next week. A warm front lifts to the north on Tuesday as high
pressure weakens nearby. A frontal boundary approaches towards mid
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Any early morning patchy fog will dissipate with a light W to
NW wind ensuing. A cold front will sag southeast this morning
and move first across NW portions of the area before getting
into the metro towards midday. Afterwards the front should get
east of the area later into the afternoon. The eastern half of
the area will experience a somewhat humid start to the day with
dew point readings mainly in the lower half of the 60s. However,
west of the cold front dew points are noticeably lower,
primarily in the 50s. It is this air mass that will begin to
push across later in the day on a NW flow bringing more of an
early fall feel to the region. It will take some time for the
drier and cooler air to push in, thus another unseasonably warm
day across the region with primarily lower and middle 80s region
wide which is close to 10 degrees above normal for this time of
year. The front will push through dry with no sensible weather
impacts as BUFKIT profiles only hint the potential for a few
clouds around 5 kft. Therefore expect a mainly sunny and
unseasonably warm day.
For this evening dew point readings begin to drop more noticeably,
and after midnight most dew point readings are progged via MOS to
get down into the 40s. A NE wind should prevent decoupling in some
spots and may limit radiational cooling to some degree despite clear
skies. Minimum temperatures will likely be in the middle and upper
40s in the coolest NW interior locations, to mainly 50s closer to
the coast, and close to 60 in the NYC metro.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure then moves directly over the area later Saturday into
Saturday night as the pressure gradient decreases and the winds veer
more to the NE and E. Temperatures with the cooler airmass in place
should be about 10 degrees or so cooler during the day Saturday
compared to the previous day. With lighter winds Saturday night
temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than the previous night in
a few of the more rural locations. Otherwise minimum temperatures
Saturday night will be similar to the previous night.
With the high getting further east for the second half of the
weekend, a few mid and upper level clouds will attempt to encroach
from the WSW. Look for another mostly sunny day, especially for
eastern locations on Sunday, with more in the way of mid and high
clouds further west across the area towards Sunday afternoon.
Another seasonable day temperature wise with mainly lower 70s for
daytime maxes. High pressure will remain in control Sunday night
despite weakening some and getting a bit further east. The dry
regime will continue into Sunday night with partly cloudy to mostly
clear skies expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
By early next week, an elongated sfc high pressure ridge extends
westward from the north Atlantic into New England and the Mid
Atlantic, with weak ridging in place aloft. Fair weather persists
Monday and with a general SE-S flow temperatures are progged near
normal, with highs in the 70s throughout.
On Tuesday, a northern stream trough sends a weak front toward the
area, likely moving through Tuesday night. The front appears fairly
moisture starved, and forecasting only lower end chance PoPs (25-
35%) Tuesday afternoon into night. Temperatures climb above normal
on a SW flow, with highs into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Guidance continues to offer varying solutions by mid to late next
week, but big picture suggests a blockier pattern, with the GEFS and
EPS indicating a rex block setting up over the Central US as ridging
builds into central Canada and a closed low forms over the Southern
Plains. This could allow a surface warm front to approach from the
southwest, and maintained national blended guidance yielding PoPs
between 15-25% Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front moves through the area this morning into early
afternoon. High pressure then builds in from the northwest.
VFR.
A general NW flow persists through the day. Speeds increase to
around 10 kt by mid morning, and gusts up to 20 kt are possible
into the afternoon with the frontal passage, though may be more
occasional at some terminals. Flow goes N and gusts diminish by
early evening but speeds remain near 10 kt overnight, becoming
more NE into Saturday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance for a seabreeze at KJFK late this afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday - Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: MVFR possible with chance of showers in the aft/eve.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions anticipated on the coastal waters for today
through this evening with 2 to 3 ft seas on the ocean. A brief
period of marginal small craft conditions for southern portions of
the ocean zones are expected late Saturday morning-afternoon with 4
to 5 ft seas, with a few gusts of 20 to 25 kt possible. Otherwise,
conditions subside quickly later Saturday afternoon and evening with
sub advisory conditions prevailing on an easterly flow into Saturday
night. Ocean seas are then expected to climb slowly Sunday night
into Monday. Marginal small craft seas are likely by late Monday
night, with a higher likelihood of more widespread 5 ft seas
on Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the entire forecast period
with dry conditions anticipated.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk for today will be low. As a NE to ENE flow
after a cold frontal passage increases to around 10-15 kt Sat
morning and seas build to 4 ft/5 sec (more favorable for
longshore currents) the rip current risk will become moderate on
Sat.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JE
HYDROLOGY...JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion