Gila New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

272
FXUS64 KEPZ 090441
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1041 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1018 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
- Drier and somewhat breezy conditions Thursday and Friday.
- Remnant tropical moisture will flow over the area Saturday
   through Monday, bringing rain and storm chances. Heavy rain
   threat will be favored in western areas.
- Temperatures will be near or above normal through Saturday,
   then cooling early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1018 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
For Thu/Fri, the upper high to the east shifts closer to us over W
TX, nudging some of the moisture into AZ. PWs remain above normal
through Fri (about 1.1"; normal is around 0.6"), but the mid-level
capping will limit our instability and convective potential. As a
result, mainly dry conditions are forecast for the short-term. The
pressure gradient stays somewhat tight through Fri, especially in
western areas closer to where surface troughing develops in
Sonora/southern AZ. E-SE winds remain on the breezy side, generally
10-20 mph, stronger near the NM-AZ border.
For the weekend and early next week, our attention shifts
to the E-Pac with multiple tropical systems rolling up the Baja.
First is now TS Priscilla, which is currently off the southern coast
of Baja and forecast to weaken/shear off before reaching the coast
on Fri. Its moisture gets scooped up by a Pacific trough Fri-Sat,
bringing highly anomalous moisture to AZ/Four Corners region. As
the trough progresses eastward Sat night/Sun, we`ll get the near-
record moisture content as well. PWs are modeled to be around 1.4"
at EPZ Sat night according to the latest ensemble guidance with
some members above 1.5". Record PWs for mid-Oct are about 1.2", so
there`s a high chance we break a record this weekend.
Confidence is high in this pattern, but we`re less certain if all
this moisture will produce a risk of flash flooding. The passing
trough will provide some lift for storms to develop, but extensive
cloud cover could limit instability and leave us with more
stratiform precip. Confidence should grow by Friday on how
convective the precip will be and the risk levels for heavy
rainfall. NBM 90th percentile QPF for Sat shows totals up to 2"
while the median is generally near 0.5". Rain/storm chances
increase from west to east Sat with western areas favored to see
flash flooding into Sun AM.
On Sunday, moisture associated with the second tropical feature
(likely to be TS Raymond) reaches our area as it takes a similar
path to Priscilla, parallel to the SW Mexican coast. The upper
trough will be ejecting into the Plains, so we won`t have as much
forcing on Sunday with this other batch of tropical moisture, at
least initially. There`s uncertainty regarding Raymond`s exact path
and where the deepest moisture sets up Sun/Mon, but we will most
likely see continued near-record PWs. The global ensembles are
focusing the heaviest QPF Sun in SW NM where there is currently a
Slight ERO in place (and even a high-end Slight more into
Tucson`s CWA). Another feature to keep an eye on is a second
Pacific trough to the northwest early next week, which may provide
some lift and scoop up the moisture. We`re unsure if this trough
will be close enough and/or timed correctly to enhance our storm
chances into Tue. Regardless of these uncertainties, areas west
of the RGV will again be favored to see storms early next week.
Thereafter, we get fully into the westerly, mid-latitude flow,
allowing dry conditions to return into the middle of next week
with some breezy winds.
Temperatures will warm to a few degrees above normal through Sat.
Temps fall back to below average early next week with the expected
increase in cloud cover and rain chances. Rebounding temps are
then expected to end the period as the moisture is flushed out to
the east.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1018 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Mid-high clouds stream overhead from the southwest into the
daytime associated with TS Priscilla`s moisture. CIGs remain high
around 20kft, except for KTCS which has a pocket of lower clouds
hanging around. Dry conditions prevail for all terminals through
the period as high pressure aloft builds in from the east. Gusts
up to 20kts develop during the afternoon. Otherwise, winds AOB
10kts through the AM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Low fire danger through the week ahead as min RH values stay well
above critical thresholds. Thursday and Friday will be dry, min RHs
will be 35-45% in the lowlands and 50-80% in the higher terrain the
next few afternoons. Tropical remnants look to flow over the area
this weekend allowing for good areawide rain chances. Storms will be
prone to heavy rainfall if they are able to tap into some
instability. Another round of tropical remnants possible starting
early next week which could continue areawide rain chances.
Breezy southeast winds will persist each overnight and afternoon
starting tonight through Friday afternoon. 20 foot wind speeds will
be 10-15 mph across the lowlands with the breeziest conditions seen
near Deming and especially west of Deming.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  85  67  86  68 /  20  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca            80  57  81  57 /  20  10  10  10
Las Cruces               81  62  82  63 /  20  10  10  10
Alamogordo               82  59  83  61 /  40  10  10  10
Cloudcroft               59  42  61  44 /  40  20  10  10
Truth or Consequences    79  60  80  60 /  20  30  10  10
Silver City              75  56  76  57 /  10  20  10  10
Deming                   84  64  85  64 /  10  10  10  10
Lordsburg                82  64  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
West El Paso Metro       83  67  84  68 /  10  10  10  10
Dell City                83  59  84  58 /  10   0  10  10
Fort Hancock             87  64  88  65 /  20  10  10  10
Loma Linda               77  58  77  59 /  20  10  10  10
Fabens                   86  64  87  65 /  20   0  10  10
Santa Teresa             82  64  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
White Sands HQ           82  63  83  63 /  30  10  10  10
Jornada Range            81  61  81  61 /  30  10  10  10
Hatch                    84  62  84  62 /  20  10  10  10
Columbus                 85  63  86  65 /  10  10  10  10
Orogrande                80  60  81  60 /  30  10  10  10
Mayhill                  68  47  71  48 /  40  10  10  10
Mescalero                71  46  73  48 /  40  20  10  10
Timberon                 68  46  69  47 /  30  10  10  10
Winston                  71  51  72  51 /  20  30  10  10
Hillsboro                78  58  79  57 /  20  20  10  10
Spaceport                80  59  81  60 /  30  20  10  10
Lake Roberts             75  52  76  53 /  20  20  10  10
Hurley                   77  57  79  57 /  10  20  10  10
Cliff                    83  60  84  61 /  20  20  10  10
Mule Creek               79  56  80  57 /  30  30  10  10
Faywood                  77  58  77  59 /  10  20  10  10
Animas                   84  63  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
Hachita                  82  62  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
Antelope Wells           84  61  85  61 /  10  10  10  10
Cloverdale               79  60  81  60 /  10  10  10  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion