Gates, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

103
FXUS61 KAKQ 261848
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
248 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front lingers over the area through Saturday,
with an upper trough settling over the Southeast by the
weekend. This will bring more unsettled conditions through the
weekend. Impacts from any tropical development would be late Monday
through Tuesday night if they occur. However, uncertainity
remains high regarding this.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...
Key Message:
-Additional showers and storms are possible later this afternoon into
 this evening bringing heavy rain and isolated Flash Flooding
 across SE VA/NE NC.
Upper ridging remains anchored off the SE CONUS coast this
afternoon. Meanwhile, a southern stream trough is over the TN
Valley/Deep South with a northern stream shortwave passing by to our
north. At the surface, a weak cold front has moved into the CWA and
has stalled from south-central to eastern VA. The northern stream
shortwave will pass by to our NE tonight while the upper trough to
our WSW slowly moves eastward toward the area.
A round of isolated to scattered showers/tstms is possible south of
the boundary from now through this evening, which should initially
be confined to far SE VA/NE NC (generally south of where the 1-3" of
rain fell last night). Storms likely initiate during the next few
hours with coverage peaking over our SE counties during the evening
hours. While severe wx isn`t expected, localized flash flooding
can`t be ruled out. The flow aloft eventually becomes southerly over
the area tonight, allowing for additional deep moisture to move
overhead. PW values across southern VA/NE NC will climb to 2-2.2" by
early Sat AM. This, combined with the forcing from the approaching
upper trough, will allow for scattered to numerous showers (and
perhaps a few tstms) to overspread the area from S to N tonight.
There are some signs that far SE VA/NE NC may see a break in the
precip tonight as it focuses more across central/southern VA after 2
AM. Localized totals of 1"+ are certainly possible with the round of
showers late tonight (but the heaviest rain will likely occur during
the day on Saturday). WPC has maintained a marginal ERO for the
southern half of the area for this afternoon through tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Saturday will be the wettest day of the period, with
  widespread ~1" rain amounts expected with localized ~3"
  totals likely in a few spots. This could result in a few
  instances of flash flooding.
- Shower chances continue on Sunday, but with little additional rain
  and less in the way of thunder chances.
Through Saturday the upper low will be just to our west as southerly
flow aloft persists over the area. At the surface, a very weak low
may track through the area along the stalled cold front. Widespread
showers will be ongoing during the morning (mainly across
central/south-central VA with less coverage closer to the coast).
Then, widespread showers and tstms are expected during the afternoon
with a focus near that stalled front/weak sfc low. Although,
convection could form just about anywhere Sat aftn. PW values will
be 2-2.2" through the day, so locally heavy rainfall will continue
to be the main concern. While there is some uncertainity regarding
the exact location of the heaviest rainfall, areal average rain
amounts of ~1" are likely with localized amounts of ~3" expected in
spots. In fact, the 12z/26 HREF continues to show a broad area of
30% neighborhood probs of 3" of rain/3 hours in central, south-
central, and eastern VA during the aftn/early evening. There is even
an outside chance of localized 3" amounts during the morning (mainly
from the Piedmont to I-95 Corridor). Convection gradually wanes late
Sat evening-Sat night with the loss of daytime heating (and as the
weak sfc low exits the area). Depending on trends, future shifts may
need to consider a Flood Watch for part of the area. Highs Saturday
only in the lower-mid 70s NW with upper 70s-lower 80s SE. WPC has
maintained a to a slight risk ERO for most of the area. The LLVL
flow becomes N-NE on Sunday behind the weak low, and while PWs will
remain high (and the upper trough will be over part of the area), it
will be more stable with clouds and light to moderate showers (and
very low thunder chances). Model QPF has decreased to 0.10-0.25" on
Sunday. Highs only reach the mid-upper 70s. WPC has removed the
Marginal Excessive Rainfall Risk for nearly all of the area on Sun.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- A unsettled pattern continues next week.
- Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane well offshore and
  AL94 has a 90% chance of development through 48 hours.
- Regardless of any direct local tropical impacts, breezy NE
  winds are expected from Tuesday night through late next week
  resulting in degraded marine conditions and coastal flooding.
Through early next week the closed upper low will continue to remain
over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Meanwhile, strong high pressure
builds over Quebec and Ontario. While a lot of uncertainty remains,
model/ensemble consensus show the high slowly building south toward
the eastern Great Lakes by the middle to end of next week. AL94 will
likely move N/NW to a position near the Southeast CONUS coast with
some degree of tropical development likely. It remains to be seen if
we see direct impacts from AL94 itself, or if the most impactful
weather next week is from strong NE winds between the high to our
north and any low to our S/SW/SE. If there are direct impacts from
AL94, they would likely be from late Monday through Tuesday night.
Nevertheless, unsettled weather conditions and rain chances will
continue through early next week. Depending on the track of the
system, locally heavy rainfall is certainly possible across parts of
the area which could lead to flooding especially with the rain
already expected this weekend. Breezy NE winds are likely by Tue
night and should increase further on Wed/Wed night as a decent shot
of CAA arrives from the NE with the strong high building southward.
Also, drier wx should finally return by Wed night/early Thu. Mainly
dry through Fri with rain chances potentially returning by next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Friday...
VFR to occasionally MVFR CIGs prevail early this afternoon with
SCT-BKN cumulus. Mainly VFR through 03-09z. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible at ORF/ECG between 20-03z and have
maintained PROB30 groups to account for this. The chance of
thunder is low through late this evening at RIC/SBY/PHF. CIGs
drop to IFR (or low-end MVFR) early Sat AM as showers overspread
the area from south to north. Widespread showers are likely at
RIC throughout the day on Sat, with showers/tstms likely at the
coastal terminals during the aftn evening. Degraded flight
conditions will likely prevail through much of the day on
Saturday, though CIGs should rise to MVFR near the coast (but
could remain IFR throughout the day at RIC).
Precipitation decreases in coverage Sat night, but sub-VFR CIGs
likely linger across the terminals. A chc of showers lingers
into Sunday and Monday with sub-VFR conditions possible at
times.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...
- Sub-SCA through the weekend, with scattered showers and storms
  today and Saturday.
- Deteriorating conditions and building NE winds are likely from
  for the first half of next week. Continue to monitor the
  forecast and the latest information from the National
  Hurricane Center regarding the progress of Humberto and
  Tropical Disturbance 94L.
A cold front has slowed down and become nearly stationary across the
local forecast area today. Winds are light and variable this
afternoon, generally less than 10kt. Latest buoy obs show seas of 2-
3ft and waves are 1ft or less. Winds will remain generally light and
variable as the front wobbles around the area and eventually pushes
offshore over the weekend. Multiple waves of showers/thunderstorms
are expected this evening through early next week. These could of
course lead to locally higher winds/waves (as well as reducing
visibility), so SMWs will be issued as needed.
Attention then turns to next week as a tropical system forms/tracks
off the coast of the SE CONUS and strong high pressure builds in
from the north. There is increasing confidence in Hurricane
Humberto curving NE and staying well offshore and sending swell to
the local waters. Much less confidence in what will likely become
Imelda, currently AL94. Regardless of exact track of the storm(s),
local waters will likely see a prolonged period of elevated NE winds
and high surf due to the tightened pressure gradient and incoming
swell. NE winds pick up to 15-20kt Monday with seas increasing to 4-
5ft. Winds and seas increase further Tues into Wed with the
potential for gale force gusts.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ERI/HET
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI/HET
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AC

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion