Garden City Beach, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

698
FXUS62 KILM 281815
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
215 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic moisture will interact with a frontal boundary
lingering just offshore to keep conditions unsettled for the
next few days. A drying trend will commence mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A stalled mid-upper trough will evolve during this period as a ridge
noses in from the Ohio Valley, forcing the trough to consolidate
into a broad closed low centered over the southern Appalachians.
This will cause the flow aloft to back from southwesterly this
afternoon to southerly tonight, then southeasterly on Monday. As a
result, tropical moisture and vorticity associated with T.S. Imelda
will be funneled into the forecast area, with pwats as high as 2-
2.2", which is well-above the 90th percentile and near the average
daily max from observed soundings at CHS and MHX. At the surface,
broad high pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift eastward
tonight, veering the low-level flow from northeasterly to easterly,
which will bring showers onshore from this evening through tonight.
Then, as vorticity from T.S. Imelda is siphoned northward, expect an
expansive shield of rain to lift northward and continue through most
or all of Monday. Rainfall totals through this period should average
around 1-1.5" near the coast with lesser amounts inland. Something
to be wary of is the potential for a heavy band of rain to set up in
a north-south fashion over some part of the forecast area on Monday,
leading to isolated peak totals as high as 3-4" in localized areas.
Temperatures will be significantly muted during this period owing to
cloudy skies and frequent rain. Where a break in the rain and some
thinning of the clouds occur, highs could reach the mid-upper 70s.
Otherwise, expect temps to remain stuck in the low-mid 70s where
rain is most persistent.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
All but assured at this point TD Nine will have no
impact on our weather conditions through mid week. That being
said...the deep sub tropical plume which would have been in place
anyway will be present and active. An old frontal boundary will
meander along the coast and this is of course a recipe for
significant rain. The best forcing and deep moisture are aligned
early Tuesday when qpf could total in excess of an inch in six
hours. This is mainly confined to the Cape Fear region. Storm total
qpf amounts have increased a bit to show more 3 plus inches again
mainly along coastal areas. The relative prolonged nature of the
rain should preclude a Flash Flood Watch. No impactful changes in
temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 70s and lows in the
lower to middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High amplitude pattern...once again somewhat typical of
the season will be in place with strong ridging across the
Mississippi Valley. At the surface this leads to an elongated axis of
high pressure centered well to the northeast. The only pops to speak
of area along coastal areas late in the period as the pattern hints
of a change but these are of course low confidence. Temperatures
will of course be on the cool side with highs in the lower to middle
70s early and lows well into the 50s. By the weekend expect some air
mass modification as highs trend toward 80 and lows moreso in the
60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR cigs remain the primary concern through this afternoon,
although a general trend toward VFR is expected with time as daytime
heating helps to mix out low-level clouds. Nevertheless, passing
showers and associated brief reductions in cigs and vis remain
possible, mainly near the coast. Otherwise, expect another night of
IFR to LIFR restrictions due to low cigs after midnight, with
increasing shower coverage expected to bring frequent MVFR vis
restrictions starting late in the night, with brief IFR to LIFR
possible in a passing heavy shower or thunderstorm. Gusty winds to
around 20 kts will pick up by late morning and continue thereafter.
Extended Outlook... Restrictions will continue as clouds and rain
are brought northward from Imelda. Widespread MVFR to IFR vis and
cig restrictions should improve from Wednesday onward, but gusty
winds will continue through most or all of the week.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Monday...
High pressure will shift eastward across the Ohio
Valley, resulting in increasing northeast winds on Monday. In
addition, as swells from Humberto and T.S. Imelda arrive, expect
deteriorating marine conditions via increasing swells on Monday,
with a Small Craft Advisory in effect from late morning onward as
seas reach or exceed 6 feet and gusts pass 25 kts, at least in the
SC waters.
Monday Night through Friday...
Small craft to perhaps Gale conditions will be in place
early on...basically through Tuesday via the building pressure
gradient between a lingering coastal front and high pressure to the
northeast. Winds will be from the northeast and with gusts the
aforementioned gale warning could be warranted. For mid to late week
the northeast flow will keep the threat for a headline will be in
place. Significant seas will be prolific early on with a range of 8-
13 feet and trend down slowly in time following the trend of the
winds.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...SHK/ABW

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion