Frewsburg, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

516
FXUS61 KBUF 171457
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1057 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain fair weather through Thursday. A weak
cold front will drop across our region Thursday night and early
Friday, though any shower activity will remain sparse. More
noticeable will be the change in temperatures with highs Friday
around 10 degrees cooler than Thursday with a brisk northerly wind.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over southern Quebec will gradually slide
towards Atlantic Canada through the period, allowing a coastal low
just south of Delmarva to drift northward and inland. This low will
bring some mid and upper level cloudiness into the region. Any
precipitation will stay well to the south of the region.
Otherwise, high pressure will maintain fair weather through tonight.
Highs temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s, falling back into the
50s tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
During Thursday lingering surface-based ridging over our area will
gradually weaken in place. Meanwhile broad upper-level troughing
digging across Quebec will help to push an attendant surface low
across Labrador...with its associated weak trailing cold front
sagging south to the Saint Lawrence Valley and Lake Ontario by the
end of the day. While this feature will only be accompanied by
limited moisture and a weak shortwave...it may still be sufficient
to trigger a few isolated to widely scattered showers across the
North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley and Lake Ontario later in the
day. Otherwise dry and warm weather will continue to prevail.
The weak cold front will then ease its way south across our region
Thursday night. While synoptic moisture will remain limited and the
bulk of any support from the passing shortwave will slide by our
north and east...moisture contributions from the lakes and
increasing upsloping will probably prove sufficient to support some
clouds and additional widely scattered to scattered light showers
east and then south of Lake Ontario. A few of these could even
linger into early Friday morning across the higher terrain south of
Lake Ontario...before strong Canadian high pressure and notably
cooler/ drier air over Ontario Province settles southeastward to New
England...and brings a return to fair dry weather for the balance of
this period.
More notably...this incoming cooler airmass will result in temps
falling back to below average for both Friday and Friday night.
After highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Friday...radiational cooling
should then allow for lows to settle into the upper 30s-mid 40s
south of Lake Ontario Friday night...with areas east of Lake Ontario
potentially seeing readings dip as low as the lower to mid 30s...
which would be supportive of frost formation if realized. Developing
return flow on the backside of the ridge should then allow for some
gradual warming of our airmass Saturday and Saturday night...with
lows during the latter likely not anywhere near as cool as those of
the preceding night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Later in the weekend and early next week the strong surface ridge
will gradually settle off the New England coast and into the western
Atlantic. Meanwhile...its parent broad upper level ridge will slowly
amplify along and just offshore of the Atlantic coastline...as an
upper level trough digs across the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest
and drives downstream height rises across the far eastern CONUS.
While periodic spokes of shortwave energy and moisture will spin off
this latter feature and try to make their way into our region...
these will also tend to dampen/weaken as they encounter increasing
amounts of ridging with time and increasing eastward extent. For our
region...the end result will merely be a gradual west to east
increase in the potential for some isolated to widely scattered
light showers through this period...which blended guidance currently
handles reasonably well via a general increase in PoPs to slight
chance/low chance (20-30%) through Tuesday. Given the expected weak
and light nature of these...expect these to bring little to no
relief from the ongoing very dry conditions. The latter will also be
exacerbated by an increasing southerly flow in between the western
Atlantic ridge and Midwest low...which will help push temps back to
mid-summerlike levels.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure over the region will maintain VFR across all terminals
rest of today. Patchy upper level cirrus will be around for the much
of the day, before starting to retreat from west to east late in the
day into this evening as low pressure over the Mid Atlantic weakens
and starts to pull east.
Mainly VFR tonight with valley fog appearing possible again across
the Southern Tier later tonight through mid morning Thursday as we
lose any cloud cover aloft through the overnight allowing for
radiational cooling conditions.
Outlook...
Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Overnight valley fog across
the western Southern Tier will be possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Mainly light winds and low wave action expected through at least
Thursday with high pressure in control.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion