Freeman, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

545
FXUS66 KOTX 291149
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
449 AM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds this
  afternoon and evening
- Areas of haze and smoke impacting air quality across the
  region.
- Unsettled weather pattern this week with multiple chances for
  showers and a few thunderstorms.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A pattern change commences Monday and continues through the
week. Temperatures will be cooling closer to normal with an
increasing risk for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds
will be gusty at times, especially Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Thursday: A pattern change is underway. Was
Sunday the last taste of the 80s for folks across the Inland
NW? It sure looks that way. Satellite reveals a broad upper-
level trough tracking into the Western US tonight. The eastward
progression is very slow and the band of steady rain along the
WA Coast will only make it to the Cascade Crest by this
afternoon. Ahead of this front, southerly flow is pumping mid
and high level moisture into the area. The moisture will have a
few hundred joules of elevated instability to work with along
the spine of the ID/WA border which will bring a 20-30% chance
for high based showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder
Monday morning.
Shower chances will increase further region-wide later this
afternoon and into Monday evening as a shortwave swings around
the base of the trough and ejects inland. As these showers come
inland, they will bring the potential for gusty outflow winds.
Numerous hi-res models are indicating wind gusts 25-35 mph with
showers due subcloud layers being so dry. We should start seeing
winds increasing across the region after 1PM with locally gusty
conditions stretching from the Saddle Mountains northward into
the Okanogan Valley (southerly winds). A push of stronger winds
will be possible with the aforementioned shortwave and showers
arriving in the evening roughly 5PM-9PM. HRRR, UW WRF, and
NAM3km indicate brief burst of 30-35 mph with these showers with
highly localized speeds around 45 mph in the foothills of the
Blue Mountains, Palouse and L-C Valley. This comes with decaying
thunderstorms from Northeastern Oregon and this area will need
to be monitored closely this evening. These quick surges of
winds are known to produce patchy blowing dust, throw around
light weight objects like ez-ups and umbrellas, and result in
minor tree damage. Any folks planning to be on lakes within the
Inland NW this afternoon should be prepared for rapidly changing
conditions if showers or thunderstorms are moving in!
Tuesday is looking to start off dry with weak subsidence behind
Monday night`s shortwave passage but another frontal band will
be swinging inland from a deepening low off the coast.
Instability parameters increase further for SE WA and lower ID
Panhandle with cam models indicated discrete thunderstorm cells
ahead of the incoming frontal band. Impacts from these will be
lightning, brief downpours of rain and small hail, and gusty
winds. Bands of light rain will cross into Central WA in the
afternoon and track eastward through the evening and overnight
hours. Embedded thunderstorms through the evening will remain a
possibility. Snow levels will waver from 6000-7000 feet over the
Cascades.
Wednesday and Thursday will be cooler with periods of showers and
afternoon thunderstorms as the offshore low weakens and drifts
inland. It will feel a bit more like October with highs in the
60s, mix of sun and clouds, and showers. The main threat for
thunderstorms on Wednesday will migrate into the northern
mountains with a 20-30% chance in NE WA and N ID and 10-20% for
much of the Upper Basin and Cascades. Snow levels will remain
between 6000-7000 feet with potential for higher peaks to
receive light snow.
Friday into the weekend: While confidence is not high, there is
an increasing trend in the models for the remnants of Thursday
low to drift south of the area, high pressure to amplify off the
coast, and another shortwave to quickly drop in from the
northwest. Loose agreement is for this wave to arrive Friday
afternoon into Saturday and dig into the Great Basin Sunday.
Some ensemble members indicate the potential for this wave to
deliver gusty winds and shifting winds from the west to north
then northeast as the wave progresses through over the period.
Not seeing a lot of significant cooling at the surface reflected
in the NBM temperature forecast but there is certainty a good
deal of chilly air drawn into Canada north and east of our
borders indicative of a drier, continental air mass. This is
also reflected in the PWAT anomalies that start near 100% Friday
and lower to 40% by Monday. So this is a system we will need to
monitor for localized gusty winds, especially for any ongoing
fires. Wouldn`t rule out more widepsread freezing temperatures
for the morning as we get into early next week which is quite
common with drier air masses. Stay tuned! /sb
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: MVFR/VFR conditions continue through the period with
areas of haze and smoke. Main concern for restrictions to vis
will be Wenatchee, Chelan, Omak, and into the East Slopes
including Winthrop, Plain, and Lake Wenatchee. There is a small
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms through 18z Monday
for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW-KLWS-KEAT (15-20% chance). Looks to be
more showers than thunderstorms and high based activity. Shower
chances increase to around 30-40% around 21z starting in the
Cascades (KEAT) and spreading into eastern WA after 00z Tue.
Gusty outflow winds will be a concern with any showers and
storms with several hi res models indicating gusts 30+ mph
briefly. Pilots should be prepared for erratic winds with any
precipitation approaching between 21-04z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Low confidence for MVFR or worse conditions from wildfire smoke
at any terminals outside the East Slopes of the Cascades.
Moderate confidence for gusty outflow winds, especially over far
SE WA and NC Idaho where hi-res models are showing gusts 30+ kts
as showers/decaying storms come through around 02-03z. Moderate
uncertainty with exact timing. /sb
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        75  51  69  50  65  46 /  10  60  30  50  60  40
Coeur d`Alene  76  52  69  50  65  47 /  20  70  50  60  70  60
Pullman        74  47  67  47  64  43 /  20  70  50  50  60  60
Lewiston       81  57  74  55  71  52 /  10  60  50  50  50  60
Colville       74  41  67  40  62  34 /  10  80  60  60  90  60
Sandpoint      73  47  66  45  62  42 /  20  80  70  70  90  70
Kellogg        77  52  66  52  63  49 /  20  80  70  70  80  80
Moses Lake     75  48  71  50  68  43 /  10  50  20  40  50  20
Wenatchee      74  51  68  51  67  47 /  40  70  20  60  50  20
Omak           76  50  70  49  67  44 /  20  80  30  50  50  30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT today for Central Chelan
     County-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-
     Western Chelan County.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion