Fort Greely, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

126
FXAK69 PAFG 251000
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 AM AKDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems translate through a broad
troughing pattern late this week into the weekend. The first low
builds out of the Bering Sea through the Aleutians and into the
Gulf of Alaska today, with a second area of low pressure dropping
out of Siberia through Southwest Alaksa on Friday. These two
systems will bring isolated to scattered rain snow showers across
the Central and Eastern Interior, extending north into the
portions of the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and Arctic Coast.
This includes the potential light snowfall accumulations in the
higher elevations. The second system will bring a return of
scattered rain and snow showers to the West Coast of Alaska, in
addition to stronger northerly winds. This second system will
eventually meander into the Gulf of Alaska this weekend,
supporting the continued to scattered rain and snow showers
through parts of the Interior and north towards the Arctic Coast.
Cooler temperatures accompany the arrival of these systems through
the end of the week and this weekend. Unsettled weather with
scattered rain and snow chances, and cooler temperatures look to
persist into early next week.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Next system builds into the area today into Friday, supporting
  scattered rain and snow showers through the weekend. Increasing
  confidence in light snowfall accumulations across the higher
  elevations.
- Lows continue to reach near to below freezing, supporting more
  widespread frost/freeze conditions, including the potential for
  the first freeze at Fairbanks International Airport.
- Highs through the weekend in the upper 30s to low 40s.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Next system moves in from Siberia tonight into Friday,
  supporting isolated to scattered rain and snow showers along the
  West Coast as the Western Interior remains dry.
- Stronger notherly winds of 3O to 40 mph along portions of the
  West Coast as the system drops south into Southwest Alaska
  tonight into Friday.
- Highs through the weekend in the upper 30s to low 40s.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers linger along the
  Western Arctic Coast today, with additional light accumulations
  possible.
- Next system moves in today into Friday, supporting scattered
  rain and snow showers through the weekend, primarily across the
  North Slope and Central/Eastern Brooks Range. Increasing
  confidence in light snowfall accumulations across the higher
  elevations.
- Highs in the low to mid 30s along the Arctic Coast, teens to
  low 30s in the Brooks Range.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday)
After a mild and drier Wednesday for portions of the area, two
systems are expected to translate through a broad trough over
Alaska. The first of the system`s quickly builds out of the Bering
Sea through the Aleutians, and into the Gulf of Alaska today. This
system will interact with a subtle mid-level trough across the
Arctic Coast, allowing moisture to be pulled into the
Central/Eastern Interior and north to the Arctic Coast. This will
support a cooler airmass gradually overspreading the Interior,
with a return of isolated to scattered rain and snow showers.
Precipitation chances will extend northeastward through parts of
the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and the Arctic Coast. Guidance
has varied a bit on the extent of coverage, generally expected to
remain isolated to scattered in nature. Though it is worth noting,
some guidance hint at a narrow corridor of moderate to heavy
pockets of precipitation through tonight into Friday morning.
Meanwhile, isolated to scattered rain and snow showers linger
along the Western Arctic Coast today, with additional light
accumulations possible. As for the Interior, light snowfall
accumulations would be limited to the higher elevations. Portions
of the North Slope and Western Interior generally remain dry
through today.
The next system quickly drops out of Siberia tonight into Friday,
bringing a return of scattered rain and snow showers to the West
Coast of Alaska. While snowfall accumulations are expected to be
minimal, attention is focused on the accompanying strong
northerly winds with the system. The latest HREF guidance depicts
mean (50th percentile) wind gusts around 30 to 40 mph from the
Seward Peninsula and southward along the West Coast. If winds were
to overachieve, the 90th percentile features wind gusts
approaching 50 mph. This will be monitored over the next 12 to 24
hours. Winds gradually dissipate into later part of Friday/early
Saturday as the system drops into the Gulf of Alaska. As this
happens, additional scattered rain and snow showers overspread
the Alaska Range, and north through the Central/Eastern Interior
towards the Brooks Range and Arctic Coast this weekend. Cooler
air continuing to funnel into the region this weekend may even
support light snowfall into the lower elevations, especially
during the overnight period Saturday into Sunday. This is depicted
in the latest ECMWF meteograms for locations including Fairbanks.
Additionally, the first official freeze of the season appears
likely this weekend for Fairbanks. As for potential snowfall
amounts, the higher elevations could see a few inches. This
appears to be more of an early season nuisance snowfall for some
locations, rather than an impactful system as overall QPF amounts
remain lighter around 0.25 to 0.75 inches through the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... (Monday through next Thursday)
As we progress into early next week, isolated to scattered rain
and snow chances will continue across the Central/Eastern
Interior, Alaska/Brooks Ranges, and North Slope, as drier
conditions return to the West Coast/Western Interior. Beyond early
week precipitation chances, ensemble guidance begins to diverge
with a range of solutions on the pattern into early October.
Guidance is struggling to capture the extent of a ridge building
over the Bering Sea, and how it interacts with the ongoing trough
pattern over Alaska.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853-854.
&&
$$

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion