Fort Drum, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

435
FXUS61 KBUF 262308
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
708 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A secondary cold front will continue isolated showers across the
North Country through the evening hours. Otherwise, clearing skies
across Western New York will allow for river valley fog, as well as
patches of fog south of Lake Ontario. High pressure will then become
anchored over the Great Lakes region with an extended period of dry
weather Saturday through all of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Radar imagery showing a few scattered showers crossing the Saint
Lawrence Valley this evening as a weak secondary cold front moves
southeast across the area. The showers are mainly supported by
limited diurnal instability, so expect them to diminish and end
through the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating.
Otherwise, clearing skies this evening over Western New York will
allow for river valley fog formation through the Southern Tier and
southern Genesee Valley...with some patches of fog also forming
south of Lake Ontario as temperatures lower to near the dewpoint
temperature.
Saturday will remain dry with our region nestled between an mid
level ridge to our southeast, and flattening trough to our west. A
mix of clouds and sunshine for tomorrow with above normal
temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A flattening mid level trough will pass over the lower Great Lakes
Saturday night, and this feature will maintain tropical moisture to
near the coastline, leaving our region on the dry side.
Moisture in the mid levels will likely brush by our region Saturday
night in the form of clouds, that may limit the overnight fog
formation.
Plenty of subsidence Sunday with high pressure nearby will leave our
region mostly sunny, with this sunshine aiding in temperatures in
the mid 70s to lower 80s...about 10 degrees warmer than normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mid level ridge of high pressure will anchor over the Great Lakes
this period, keeping tropical moisture well to our south and
allowing for fair weather to continue through the period.
A dry frontal passage Tuesday night, with cold air advection
Wednesday will send temperatures briefly back to normal Wednesday
and Thursday, with above normal warmth returning for next Friday.
The core of the colder airmass will be Wednesday night which
with deep dry airmass aloft and lighter winds may allow for
frost formation east of Lake Ontario, and possibly within some
of the colder valleys of the inland Southern Tier. Additional
frost is also possible Thursday night east of Lake Ontario
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak secondary cold front will continue to produce a few scattered
showers across the Saint Lawrence Valley north and east of KART this
evening with local CIG/VSBY restrictions. Otherwise, skies have
cleared across the remainder of the area with VFR.
Overnight, expect river valley fog and local IFR/LIFR to develop
across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Patchy fog will also
develop elsewhere with local IFR. For the TAF sites, KJHW is the
most likely to see more significant fog, with somewhat lower but
still notable IFR probabilities elsewhere.
The fog will dissipate by mid morning Saturday, leaving VFR to
prevail. Areas of clouds with VFR bases will move across the eastern
Great Lakes north of an area of unsettled weather over the Mid
Atlantic states.
Outlook...
Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog and local IFR
possible each late night through morning.
&&
.MARINE...
A secondary surface cold front will clip the eastern waters of Lake
Ontario this evening, yet winds will remain light, generally 5 to 10
knots from the southwest to west...though slightly higher in speed
to 15 knots over the eastern Lake Ontario waters in the vicinity of
the cold front.
Thereafter, surface high pressure will remain near the Great Lakes
region through the weekend, and through much of next week. Periodic
weak fronts will near the Lakes, bringing a light chop to the lake
waters in an otherwise quiet wind and low wave pattern.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/Thomas
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Thomas

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion