Fort Bliss, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

159
FXUS64 KEPZ 030404
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1004 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1003 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- There will be a low chance of showers for areas west of the
   Continental Divide on Friday.
- Slight chances of showers/thunderstorms return to much of the
   area for the middle part of next week.
- Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal as a drier
   airmass takes over. Southerly winds may also become a little
   breezy Friday and Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1003 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Pretty quiet start to the forecast period as high pressure and/or
dry southwest flow aloft dominates. Then some "noise" enters mid
portion of next week. For tonight and Friday, Mexican high
pressure ridge that has built over New Mexico begins to drift east
in response to Pacific trough moving in. However main result is
still dry southwest flow aloft over the CWA. Models do continue to
show a sliver of moisture being drawn northward in this flow over
the area, and with some of the CAMS models showing showers/tstms
late afternoon and evening Friday, have put low POPs in grids
west of the Cont Divide to reflect this. Otherwise dry through
Monday with high temps about 5-7 degrees above normal.
Things get interesting Monday night and beyond. What will be
tropical Priscilla moves up toward the southern Baja. While her
moisture contribution is minimal, she pushes much of the dry
southwest stream over us to our northwest and allows mid level
south/southeast flow to advect sub-tropical moisture into our
area. By Monday night and Tuesday, dewpoints increase back into
the 50s across the CWA and pretty much remains in place the
remainder of next week. Also by Monday night and Tuesday, PWs are
back over an inch after ranging in the .5-.7 inch mark this
weekend. Thus, POPs begin popping up many of the forecast zones
Monday night. Priscilla sheds more moisture up Thursday and Friday
but most of this looks to head into Arizona. Both GFS/ECMWF
continue to move the last remnants of Priscilla up over Arizona
though timing is significantly different. Because of this rain
chances beyond Thursday still well up in the air.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1003 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR expected through the period with SKC-SCT250. Developing
after 18Z SCT-BKN100. Additionally, very slight chance of BKN080CB
-SHRA/-TSRA west of the Cont Divide after 20Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through the
forecast period but with no significant fire weather concerns.
Afternoon RH values will drop into the upper teens and lower 20s
for Friday while winds top out around 10 MPH. Areas west of the
Rio Grande will have a low chance (15%) for a shower or
thunderstorm. Winds will increase some for Saturday, topping out
around 15 MPH for mainly the mountains and northern lowlands. Min
RH values will be similar to Friday. Venting will range good to
very good on Friday, increasing to very good to excellent on
Saturday.
Winds come down for Sunday but min RH values will remain in the
upper teens to lower 20s. Moisture will gradually increase into
next week continuing to keep fire weather concerns minimal to nil.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  90  66  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            84  54  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               87  59  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               87  61  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               64  44  63  44 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    85  59  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              80  55  78  51 /   0   0  10  10
Deming                   89  59  89  54 /   0   0  10   0
Lordsburg                87  62  86  56 /   0   0  20  10
West El Paso Metro       88  65  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                88  57  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             89  62  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               81  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   89  62  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             87  62  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           87  62  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            86  59  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    89  59  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 89  60  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                85  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  74  48  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                77  49  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 72  46  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  77  49  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                84  56  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                85  57  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             80  52  78  45 /   0   0  10  10
Hurley                   83  55  82  50 /   0   0  10  10
Cliff                    87  59  85  52 /   0   0  20  10
Mule Creek               84  55  81  48 /   0   0  20  20
Faywood                  82  57  81  51 /   0   0  10   0
Animas                   88  61  86  55 /   0   0  10  10
Hachita                  87  59  86  54 /   0   0  10  10
Antelope Wells           87  59  86  54 /   0   0  10  10
Cloverdale               83  59  80  53 /  10  10  20  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion