Florida State University, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

840
FXUS62 KTAE 250009
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
809 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
No significant changes to the forecast from the near term below.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
For the rest of today, a few isolated showers and storms may develop
across the area this afternoon before fading this evening. With
moisture increasing ahead of an approaching cold front and light to
calm winds expected tonight, patchy fog will likely develop across a
good portion of the area overnight into Thursday morning. Some of
the fog could be locally dense with the HREF yielding a 30-40%
chance of visibilities at or below 1/2 mile during the morning
commute. Those higher probabilities are over the Florida Big Bend
and up through the I-75 corridor of south Georgia. Lows tonight will
hover a few degrees either side of 70.
The cold front slowly moves across the Southeast and central Gulf
Coast on Thursday in conjunction with a positively tilted upper
trough from the Great Lakes into the southern Plains. With afternoon
instability and the nearby trough, expect better coverage of
scattered showers and storms Thursday afternoon, especially west of
the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. As deep-layer shear increases
late in the afternoon to around 20-30 kt, a few stronger storms may
be possible, especially if they become semi-organized clusters.
However, the storms will have to overcome some poor lapse rates.
Gusty winds would be the primary hazard with any stronger storms.
Farther east, rain chances will be closer to 20-30% away from the
main source of lift. Highs tomorrow will range from the mid to upper
80s over the Wiregrass to the low to mid 90s farther east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The trough begins to cut off Friday over the southeast US with the
cold front slowly moving across our area. As the trough cuts off, hi-
res models are hinting at a little extra lift Thursday night which
could yield another surge of showers and storms near the Florida
Panhandle. While instability will be at a relative minimum, there`s
enough deep-layer shear that a strong gusty storm can`t be
completely ruled out late Thursday night near the coast. There`s
still some timing and coverage discrepancies in the forecast for
Friday`s rain and storms. Some guidance is a bit faster with the
overall progression of the system, while some keep it a bit slower.
But, showers and storms are likely again Friday with a bit more
instability, lift, and shear in place. While currently not outlined
by SPC, I wouldn`t be surprised to see a Marginal Risk from SPC for
parts of the area Friday with gusty winds being the main threat.
While some locally heavier downpours are possible, the flood risk
appears minimal given the recent developing drought. Rain and storms
will gradually exit the area Friday night.
Lows both nights will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs in
the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The upper-level low kind of meanders over the Southeast and
Appalachians through the early part of next week. Rain chances will
still remain highest near the Suwannee Valley on Saturday as the
cold front exits with low rain chances remaining in the forecast
through early next week. Only isolated showers are expected at
most each day from Sunday onward with no significant impacts
expected. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows
in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Fog and low stratus is anticipated tonight to affect all
terminals in some way. The fog development is most likely to
affect ABY, VLD, and TLH terminals, while the low stratus is more
likely to affect the DHN and ECP terminals. The terminals that
experience fog could have vsbys as low as 3/4SM but would not be
surprised if it fell to 1/4SM. Low cigs down to 200FT are possible
for our western terminals in the morning hours. The poor flight
conditions should begin to improve around 14z. Southwesterly winds
around 5-10 kts will prevail through the day, with the potential
for gusts around 15kts in the afternoon hours outside of any
thunderstorms. Precipitable water values are forecast to be around
2 inches which means that the storms could produce heavy
rainfall, reducing vsbys at the terminals. Ceilings for Thursday
afternoon will likely remain MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Light to gentle southwesterly winds will continue over the next
couple of days ahead of an approaching cold front. Chances for
showers and storms will increase through Thursday before tapering
into the weekend. A few stronger storms with gusty winds are
possible Thursday night into Friday. Winds over the weekend will
become more northerly to northeasterly in the wake of the cold
front. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet through the next 5 days.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front through
the rest of the week. Dispersions will be highest across south
central Georgia on Thursday with the combination of high mixing
heights and increasing southwesterly transport winds around
10-15 mph. Rain chances increase over the Wiregrass on Thursday,
then spread across the area Friday. Some stronger storms are
possible with gusty, erratic winds both Thursday and Friday. Rain
begins exiting the area Saturday with winds becoming
northwesterly behind the front.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Rainfall totals over the next 3-4 days will likely be around 0.5 to
1 inch, with the highest totals being over the Florida Panhandle and
southeast Alabama. Some locally higher totals are possible with the
90th percentile around 2 to 3 inches. Even with the higher end
totals, this would not cause any flash flood concerns given the high
flash flood guidance from recent developing drought conditions.
This rain likely won`t be a drought buster for our area, but any bit
does help the drought situation.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  71  92  72 /   0   0  30  50
Panama City   89  76  88  72 /   0   0  40  80
Dothan        94  71  87  69 /  10  10  70  60
Albany        96  71  92  70 /   0   0  50  50
Valdosta      94  70  93  71 /   0   0  20  30
Cross City    93  72  91  72 /  20  10  20  20
Apalachicola  86  76  86  74 /   0   0  20  60
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion