Fishkill, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

528
FXUS61 KALY 220513
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
113 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be departing off to the east tonight into
Monday, which will allow for dry and comfortable weather to
continue. An approaching upper level disturbance will bring the
threat for some much needed rain showers to the region for
Monday night into Tuesday. Some additional rainfall is possible
later in the week as well.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 140 PM EDT...Surface high pressure (around 1030 mb) is
located close to the Gulf of Maine and it will be departing off
to the east for tonight. With our area on the western side of
this high pressure area, the low-level southerly flow is now out
of the south, with some gusty winds occurring within the
immediate Hudson Valley thanks to channeling through the
terrain. Visible satellite imagery shows a mostly clear sky,
with some bands of thin high cirrus clouds around. Through
tonight, dry weather will continue with a mostly clear sky. The
light southerly breeze will continue, which should help prevent
widespread fog from developing, although some patchy fog is
still possible, especially across sheltered areas. Temps won`t
be as cool as the last few nights, with lows generally in the
40s. It will stay dry and comfortable into Monday, with a partly
to mostly sunny sky and temperatures reaching the mid 70s in
valley areas.
A weak upper level disturbance will be moving from the Great
Lakes towards the Northeast for Monday night into Tuesday, along
with a surface frontal boundary. Increasing low level moisture
will be occurring ahead of this system thanks to the persistent
southerly flow and dewpoints will be rising through the 50s and
back into the 60s by Tuesday. As a result, some showers are
expected, especially for northern and western areas, which will
be closer to the track of the surface low. QPF looks fairly
light, but most areas will see a quarter to a third of an inch,
which should help due to the recent dry conditions. There is a
25% to 60% chance of 0.50", with the highest values in the
Adirondacks, according to the latest NBM guidance. Although
instability is limited, a rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out,
especially for southern areas, as there be just enough elevated
instability in place, but no strong storms are expected. Temps
will continue to be seasonable, with daytime highs in the mid to
upper 70s on Tuesday.
Behind this system, there will be the potential for some
additional rainfall for the mid to late week. A closed off upper
level low will be moving across the Midwest and will be
approaching the region from the west. There are some different
solutions in the guidance regarding the exact timing of this
feature and how much precip will occur. Will continue to side
close to the blended guidance through the extended period, with
chance POPs each day for Wednesday through Saturday. At this
point, any additional rainfall is much needed, so this could be
beneficial for the region. Temperatures will continue run close
to average or slightly above normal through the mid to late
week period, with valley highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tue...Some radiational mist/fog is expected this morning
at KGFL/KPSF with IFR/LIFR conditions.  KGFL has dropped to MVFR
levels at 05Z/Mon already.  TEMPO groups were used between 06Z-
10Z/Mon at KGFL and 07Z-11Z/Mon at KPSF for IFR/LIFR mist/fog and
low stratus.  VFR conditions are expected at KPOU/KALB with some
scattered high clouds in advance of a warm front.  VFR conditions
are expected after localized mist/fog burns off with increasing mid
and high clouds.  A low pressure system and its warm front will
continue to lower the cloud bases to 3.5-5 kft AGL by 23Z/Mon from
KALB north to KGFL with a few showers in the vicinity.  Mid and high
clouds will continue for KPSF to KPOU into tonight. The better
chance of showers will not be until after 06Z/Tue.
The winds will be southeast to south at 7 KT or less at KALB early
this morning with light to calm winds at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. The winds
will increase from the south in the late morning into the afternoon
around 10 KT with a few gusts 15-20 KT for KALB/KGFL.  The winds
will decrease from the south to 7 KT or less tonight.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
DISCUSSION...Frugis
AVIATION...Wasula

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion