Fern Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

090
FXUS63 KDMX 092002
AFDDMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
302 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms tonight into Friday
  morning. Chances are the highest across eastern and southern
  Iowa.
- Highs near to above normal in the 60s to 70s are expected over
  the next week, with near 80 Sunday.
- Dry forecast returns Friday afternoon through Sunday, with the
  next chance of rain Sunday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Rest of Today into Friday Morning...The Great Lakes high that
we have been discussing the last few discussions has now moved
into the northeast CONUS. With this our pattern will start to
shift as a clipper like low moves from Canada down into the
Midwest. Clear to mostly clear skies with favorable mixing and a
tightening pressure gradient has allowed today to be gusty. As
the low moves down it will drag a cold front along with it. This
will provide a shift in winds from the south to the north and
lift. Therefore, some isolated to scattered showers and storms
are expected with this frontal passage overnight. Forecast
profiles continue to show elevated instability with mainly speed
shear within the saturated layer. These profiles would allow
for some isolated thunder and there is enough skinny CAPE that
some hail cannot be ruled out. With the lack of deeper near
surface saturation storms are not expected to be surface based
expectations, so strong winds are not expected in stronger
storms.
Friday through Next Week... Behind the frontal passage high
pressure will move back in and return us to the dry weather we
have had the past few days. This dry air will allow for some
lower RH values such that SPC has added an elevated fire weather
risk across parts of northwest Iowa on Friday. Sunday will be
when things start to change again due to a large fall low. This
low will bring in ample warm air advection. So, Sunday will
likely be the warmest day of the next week with some 80s
possible across western and southern Iowa. This warm air
advection will be associated with a large low moving across the
Northern Plains into southern Canada keeping us solidly in the
warm sector. This is a classic fall system with snow expected on
the cold side in parts of the intermountain west and maybe even
western parts of the Northern Plains. Down here though since we
remain this the warm sector and far from the low center impacts
will be much less. It will be the warmer air for sure and the
broader lift associated with frontal passages that will give
another chance for rain late Sunday. This system will have
widespread rain with it, the question is more how far south will
the rain get? Looking to our north is where is seems likely,
but there is much more spread within global ensembles on how
far south it gets. So best chances across northern Iowa and
confidence gets lower farther south in the state. Looking ahead
to next week ensemble spread remain high for the rest of the
week with another system possible in the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
VFR this afternoon and evening with clear skies or FEW to SCT
VFR ceilings. Winds will be the main impact today with gusty
southerly winds up to around 20 knots. Wind gusts will fall off
around 00Z. There is a chance for some isolated showers or
thunderstorms late this evening into tonight. Added in some
PROB30 groups for this chance. Overall setup looks better to the
north, but likely enough to go with the PROB for now. As we
approach the 00Z TAFs hopefully confidence will be high enough
for a change in the PROB groups. Even if the rain does not
happen the ceilings will be low VFR/high MVFR. Kept them with
SHRA for now as well since the thunderstorm threat seems very
isolated at the moment. Looking ahead to tomorrow winds will
shift to the west in the morning and north in the afternoon
(generally after this TAF period).
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NC
AVIATION...NC

NWS DMX Office Area Forecast Discussion