Far Hills, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

366
FXUS61 KPHI 211735
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
135 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control the rest of Sunday before shifting
offshore on Monday. A warm front will pass through the region on
Monday as well, before a cold front gradually tracks through the
area on Wednesday. This front will then stall over the Mid-Atlantic
region through the end of the week into next weekend, causing a
period of unsettled weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains in control today and into tonight. The
high pressure system does start to shift to the east but will
continue to lead to dry conditions during the near term period.
Winds will generally be out of the east today which will lead to
an onshore flow with low clouds present for at least the first
half of the day. These clouds do start to break apart during the
afternoon with conditions trending mostly sunny. Highs today
are in the 70s. Overnight, we continue to deal with a bit of
onshore flow which has the potential to lead to some more low
clouds, especially for the coastal areas. Elsewhere, it looks to
be mainly mostly clear. Lows tonight are in the upper 40s to
upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The first part of the upcoming week will feature temperatures mostly
above normal. Weak upper ridging across the Middle Atlantic Mon
night/Tue gradually flattens by early Wednesday. A cold front drops
across the area Tue but then washes out by Wed. This front and the
increasing moisture across the area will lead to scattered showers
Tue afternoon throgh Wed.  Pops will be higher for the NW areas Tue
with chance most areas and likely for the southern Poconos. A couple
of tstms are possible too. Chances will be less on Tue for Delmarva
and south NJ where pops will be below slight chance. For Tue
night/Wed the pops are mostly chance for the entire area, but higher
for the North/West counties (50%) and closer to 30% for S/E regions.
High temps Tue will be the warmest of the period with low/mid 80s
many areas and 70s near the shore. Readings Wed will still be above
normal, but 4 or 5 degrees cooler than Tue. Lows will favor the 60s
both Mon night and Tue night.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
More unsettled weather for the long term too. After Wednesday, the
operational models are showing H5 height falls and a cutoff low
forming across the Midwest. Once this low forms, it`ll move to the
East coast and linger into the weekend. This will keep showery
weather for much of the time, and perhaps provide some needed rain
to our area. Since the details will change numerous times before the
time, we`ll just use the NBM pops/wx for now. Mostly chance pops
thru the period but some likely pops for friday for the western
areas. Temperature thru the period will mostly be near normal for
late September.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of Today...Primarily VFR at all terminals although a few
lingering MVFR CIGs cannot be ruled out at times. East-southeast
winds around 5-10 kt. Localized gusts up to 20 kt possible at
KACY. High confidence.
Tonight...VFR with a few low clouds developing around 06Z. Winds
light and variable, favoring an east-northeast direction less
than 5 kt. High confidence.
Monday...VFR expected. East winds in the morning, becoming south
winds around 5-10 kt in the afternoon. High confidence.
Outlook...
Mon night... Generally VFR. Can`t rule out some patchy fog overnight.
Tue thru Fri... VFR most of the time. Scattered showers and a few
tstms (Tue) could bring lower CIGs/VSBYs however.
&&
.MARINE...
Wind gusts will continue to subsided through today. SCA flags
will continue for most of the ocean zones with seas reaching 5ft
today and continuing into tonight. Fair weather through
tonight.
Outlook...
Not many changes from the previous forecast. High pressure across
the waters Monday night and early Tuesday weakens. It is then
replaced by a series of weak disturbances/fronts which will affect
the waters late into the upcoming week and next Sat. We`ll have
scattered showers each day and perhaps a few tstms Tue. Conditions
will overall remain below SCA levels, but seas may approach 5ft at
times Tue and Thu.
Rip Currents...
For today, east-northeast winds are around 15 to 20 mph which
decrease throughout the day. Breaking wave heights increase to
around 3 to 4 feet. Slightly larger easterly swell increasing to
around 2 feet at around 6 seconds in length. Some wave guidance
has a secondary long period (12 to 14 second) swell arriving
tomorrow. With greater wave heights, onshore flow, and multiple
swell groups (one of which being a long period swell), a HIGH
risk of rip currents are expected for today. Given that we are
late in the season, and not many beaches are guarded this time
of year, please exercise caution if at the beaches today.
For Monday, winds start out east-northeast but become more
southeasterly by the late afternoon and much lighter at around
10 MPH. Breaking wave heights hold at around 3 to 4 feet.
Slightly larger easterly swell increasing to around 3-4 feet at
around 8-9 seconds in length. Some wave guidance continues to
show the secondary long period (11 to 12 second) swell for
tomorrow. Due to breaking wave heights holding, onshore flow
lasting for a longer period of time, and multiple swell groups
(one of which being a long period swell), a HIGH risk of rip
currents are expected for Monday.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents until 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents until 7 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ451>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/RCM
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/Guzzo
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...DeSilva/Guzzo/OHara
MARINE...DeSilva/Guzzo/OHara

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion