590 FXUS61 KCLE 300426 AFDCLEArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1226 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...
.SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move south across the area on Tuesday, followed by strong high pressure on Wednesday. This area of high pressure will then maintain influence over the region into the weekend.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Quiet and dry weather is expected for the near term period with high pressure in place. A weak cold front will move south across the area on Tuesday, though will be quickly replaced by strong high pressure from the north by Tuesday night into Wednesday. Pressure gradient winds will increase out of the northeast, 10 to 15 mph with periodic gusts up to 20 mph on Tuesday, resulting from Imelda and approaching high pressure.
Above-average temperatures will continue to be the norm for Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. For most areas, onshore northeast flow will keep low temperatures mild, though we could see some 40s across interior NE OH and NW PA Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
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.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Quiet and dry weather will persist for the short term period as a strong area of high pressure builds south and east across the Great Lakes. Northeast pressure gradient winds of 10 to 15 mph and periodic gusts up to 20 mph remain likely on Wednesday, though winds are expected to weaken by Thursday as the high pressure center becomes more established across the area.
Temperatures may dip slightly below average behind the cold front on Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s, though will quickly rebound to above average in the mid to upper 70s by Thursday. Could see some patchy frost across interior NW PA early Thursday morning, though elevated winds may limit the overall potential and will continue to monitor trends.
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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Quiet and dry weather remain favored for the long term period as the influence of high pressure expands across much of the Eastern CONUS. In addition, above-average temperatures are expected to return across the area with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
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.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... VFR conditions will continue for this period through Tuesday night. Skies will remain mostly clear during the next 24 hours. Winds will be from the northeast around 5 knots through sunrise Tuesday morning. Northeast winds will increase 8 to 12 knots by midday and this afternoon. Some gusts of 20 knots are likely this afternoon at CLE and ERI. Gusts will relax after 00z this evening.
Outlook...VFR expected through Saturday.
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.MARINE... NE winds will increase on Lake Erie late tonight and especially Tuesday due to an increasing pressure gradient between a stronger Canadian high centered near Hudson Bay and Hurricane Humberto passing off the East Coast. This will require Small Craft headlines late Tuesday through Wednesday as NE winds of 5-10 knots tonight increase to 15-25 knots by late Tuesday afternoon, building wave heights to 3 to 6 feet. NE winds of 15-25 knots will continue much of Wednesday with wave heights of 3 to 6 feet before gradually diminishing late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night while becoming more E. The strongest and most persistent winds and waves will be in the central and eastern basins, so the headlines will likely be able to expire Wednesday morning in the far western basin but will continue through the day farther east.
Generally E winds of 10-15 knots are expected Thursday, with some NE component in the afternoon from a lake breeze. Mainly light and variable winds are then expected Friday into the weekend.
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.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.
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SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Kahn SHORT TERM...Kahn LONG TERM...Kahn AVIATION...77 MARINE...77
NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion