Fairchild Air Force Base, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

306
FXUS66 KOTX 230801
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
101 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chilly temperatures Tuesday morning with patchy fog and frost
  in the sheltered northeast valleys.
- Warming back to above normal Tuesday through Thursday.
- Breezy, dry conditions Thursday with elevated fire weather
  concerns.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A drying and warming trend will remain in place through mid-week
with high temperatures in the 80s by Wednesday. Dry and breezy
conditions are expected Thursday with temperatures dropping back
into the 70s Friday and Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday and Wednesday: A ridge of high pressure will build in
through mid-week bringing dry conditions and light winds across the
Inland Northwest. Light winds combined with clear skies and a dry
atmosphere will allow temperatures to fall into the 30s and 40s by
Tuesday morning with patchy fog and frost possible in the coldest
northeast valleys and near lakes and rivers. A frost advisory has
been issued for Ferry, Stevens, Pend Orielle, Boundary, and Bonner
County through 10 AM Tuesday. The crisp fall morning temperatures
won`t last long though, as afternoon highs are forecast to rise into
the upper 70s to low 80s, 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals.
The warming trend will continue into Wednesday with temperatures
rising another several degrees into the mid to upper 80s by
Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday through Monday: The pattern will shift over the second half
of the week and into the weekend as a series of shortwave
disturbances begin moving in, weakening the ridge of high pressure
over the region and gradually increasing moisture. As the ridge
begins to flatten, westerly winds will pick up Thursday into Friday.
Breeziest winds are expected through the Cascade gaps, over the
Waterville Plateau, and into the western Columbia Basin with
sustained speeds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts of 25 to 30 mph. RHs will
still be low on Thursday in the teens and low 20s, so elevated fire
weather conditions will be a concern. By Friday, cloud cover will
increase and temperatures will trend a few deg cooler in the low to
mid 70s where they will stay through the weekend. Cloud cover will
continue to increase on Saturday, then slight chances (15%) for
showers move into the Cascades Sunday morning. Shower chances stay
mainly confined to the Cascades Sunday, then expand eastward across
the region through the day on Monday.
Smoke and Haze: The Lower Sugarloaf and Labor Mountain fires in the
Cascades are expected to continue producing large amounts of smoke
that will impact air quality across the region through at least the
middle of the week. The WA Department of Ecology has issued an Air
Quality Alert until further notice and will reassess conditions
periodically. /Fewkes
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure and drier air will bring generally VFR
conditions. Low clouds and patchy fog will be possible over the
NE WA and N ID valleys overnight into early Tuesday; however
coverage is expected to be less than Monday morning. Some could
be found near the rivers, including the vcnty of SFF/COE, but
confidence is low. Wind will be light.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR through Tuesday. Low confidence in morning fog impacting
SFF/COE. Low confidence of smoke reducing visibility below 6
miles for any of the TAF sites.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        78  49  84  51  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  79  50  84  53  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        78  48  85  50  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       83  55  87  57  87  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       78  38  83  40  81  37 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      75  52  81  53  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        78  55  83  56  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     81  45  84  48  84  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      79  56  85  58  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           80  54  85  55  83  47 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Frost Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.
     Air Quality Alert until further notice for Central Chelan
     County-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-
     Western Chelan County.
ID...Frost Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for Northern
     Panhandle.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion