Fairbanks, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

687
FXAK69 PAFG 212235
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
235 PM AKDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly quiet weather conditions continue across Northern Alaska
early this week as an arctic trough passing overhead supports a
mix of rain and snow showers as colder temperatures build into the
Interior. Best precipitation chances with this system will be
across the Interior, Alaska/Brooks Ranges, and North Slope, with
the cooler temperatures supporting snow levels dropping down into
Fairbanks Monday night into Tuesday morning. Snowfall
accumulations continue to look light overall, with warm ground
temperatures across our lowest elevations limiting any
accumulation. Unsettled and cooler weather is then expected to
continue through the rest of the week as a series of systems work
to support continued precipitation chances. There remains the
potential for a stronger system to impact the West Coast late this
week, but confidence remains low this far out.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Isolated to scattered showers through the first half of the
  week, with snow levels dropping Monday and Tuesday to support a
  mix of rain and snow showers in the valleys.
- Light snow accumulations through Tuesday around a T-3" will
  remain confined to the higher elevations and mountain passes,
  with warmer ground temperatures in the valleys limiting any
  accumulation.
- Temperatures cool through Tuesday with highs falling from the
  low 50s today down to the mid 40s by Tuesday.
- Lows reach near to below freezing Monday and Tuesday
  nights, supporting more widespread frost/freeze conditions,
  including a potential first freeze at Fairbanks International
  Airport.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Temperatures cool early this week with highs in the low to mid
  40s throughout the week.
- Overall dry conditions continue through the first half of the
  week outside of isolated rain showers.
- Rain chances steadily increase for Thursday and Friday as a
  system moves in from the northwest, supporting possible snow in
  the hills and mountains.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Isolated to scattered rain/mostly snow showers through the
  first half of the week, with snow accumulations around a T-3".
  Highest totals expected along the Western Arctic Coast and
  Central/Eastern Brooks Range, including Atigun Pass.
- Isolated showers continue through the rest of the week, favoring
  the Western Arctic Coast and Brooks Range.
- Highs in the mid to upper 30s along the Arctic Coast, 20s to
  low 30s in the Brooks Range.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.
Early afternoon satellite imagery over Northern Alaska shows a
mix of sun and clouds along the West Coast as cloudy skies prevail
elsewhere, with a broad upper level troughing pattern overhead
across the state to finish out the weekend. In this regime, we are
tracking a low in the Arctic Ocean, a low in the Gulf of Alaska
and an arctic trough building in over Western Alaska. As the low
in the Gulf and arctic trough work east around the Arctic low for
Monday and Tuesday, rain and snow showers will see an increase in
coverage across the Interior, Alaska/Brooks Ranges, and North
Slope as colder temperatures build in. These colder conditions
will support gradually lowering snow levels, supporting the
potential for a rain/snow mix in the valleys. Given warm surface
temperatures, this will likely limit any valley accumulations.
Overall, light snow accumulations are expected through Tuesday
around a T-3", confined to the higher elevations/mountain passes.
As that pair of systems depart east into Canada Tuesday into
Wednesday, mostly dry conditions will return region wide outside
of isolated showers across the Brooks Range and North Slope.
During this timeframe, a 525 decameter low in the Bering Sea will
track east through the Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska, with
this track further limiting much moisture transport north of the
Alaska Range. This setup will allow for quieter weather midweek as
generally dry conditions prevail ahead of an increase in
precipitation later in the week. More on that below.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through next Sunday.
Broad upper level troughing will continue over Northern Alaska
through the extended forecast, as a procession of lows rotating
around a low in the Arctic Ocean keep the overall weather pattern
unsettled. In this regime, ensemble model guidance remains in good
agreement showing a series of lows working along a favorable
track from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska, supporting
isolated to scattered light rain/snow showers region wide. Lower
confidence surrounds the exact details and tracks of each of these
lows which we will continue to monitor, however overall model
trends show the West Coast seeing an uptick in precipitation
chances and wind Thursday into Friday, with limited higher impacts
expected further inland outside of an increase in rain/snow
showers.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
&&
$$
MacKay

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion