Fairbanks North Star Borough, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

263
FXAK69 PAFG 262335
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
335 PM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad upper level troughing pattern continues over Alaska, with
a series of low pressure systems working through the state. These
low pressure systems will bring continued rain and snow chances
across the Central/Eastern Interior, Brooks/Alaska Ranges, North
Slope, Northwest Arctic Coast, as the Western Interior and West
Coast continues to remain dry outside of isolated showers along
the coast. The first low pressure system of interest is a
hurricane force low just off the coast of Southeast Alaska, with
wrap around bands of moisture supporting rain/snow chances across
the Interior and surrounding mountains through the weekend. The
second system is working over Southwest Alaska today, quickly
tracking into the Gulf of Alaska for Saturday. This system will
bring isolated showers through the Yukon Delta region along with
increasing winds out of the north, especially along the West
Coast, where gusts to around 20-40 mph are expected. The third
system is a low working east through the Beaufort Sea, which
continues to support scattered rain/snow showers into the weekend
across the North Slope. Cooler temperatures accompany the arrival
of these systems through the end of the week and this weekend, as
an Arctic trough builds into the region.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered rain and snow showers through Monday.
- High confidence in widespread light snowfall accumulations
  across mid and high elevations, with best chances across lower
  elevations Saturday into Sunday.
- Lows continue to reach near to below freezing, supporting more
  widespread frost/freeze conditions, as we continue to wait for
  one of the record latest first freezes at Fairbanks
  International Airport.
- Highs through the weekend in the low 30s to low 40s.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Isolated rain and snow showers continue along the West Coast
  as the Western Interior remains dry.
- Breezy northerly winds today into Friday, with gusts to 20-40
  mph, strongest along the West Coast.
- Highs through the weekend in the upper 30s to low 40s.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers through early next
  week, primarily across the North Slope and Central/Eastern
  Brooks Range.
- Highs in the low to mid 30s along the Arctic Coast, teens to
  low 30s in the Brooks Range.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Monday.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a mix of sun and clouds
across Northern Alaska, as we continue to track a series of lows
passing through a broad upper level troughing pattern over the
state. The first low, a hurricane force low currently off the
coast of Southeast Alaska, will continue to support wrap around
bands of moisture into the Central/Eastern Interior, Alaska Range,
and Eastern Brooks range north to the Arctic Coast. This area has
been the focus of isolated to scattered rain and snow showers
today, with showers expected to continue through the weekend as a
colder airmass works to support more widespread snow chances. This
low is expected to gradually dissipate and become part of the
second low that is currently dropping south through the Bering Sea
this morning, which will bring breezy northerly winds across
Western Alaska with gusts to around 20-40 mph.
Heading into the weekend, the low in the Gulf of Alaska will
continue to support rain and snow showers through the
Central/Eastern Interior and Alaska/Brooks Range, transitioning
over to mostly snow throughout the day Saturday into Sunday.
Additional QPF amounts through the weekend still looking generally
light around 0.10-0.50", with high confidence for accumulations
snow, especially across mid and upper elevations. As for lower
elevations, including Fairbanks, model guidance in addition to the
snow we saw out there today, is supportive of cold enough air
Saturday night into Sunday to bring accumulating snow to valley
floors. There remains some uncertainty on the amounts across lower
elevations, as temperatures around freezing and warmer ground
temperatures would need to be overcome, but certainly something to
watch for. Snowfall amounts through Sunday are expected to be
around a T-1" across the Tanana River Valley, 1-3" across the
Yukon Flats, and 3-8" across higher elevations of the
Alaska/Brooks Range and White Mountains.
As we progress into early next week, precipitation chances
gradually shift north and east of the Interior as a ridge nudges
into Western Alaska. This ridge should keep most of the region
drier to begin the week, as afternoon highs begin to see a warming
trend especially across the Interior. Overnight lows however will
continue to remain cool in the 20s and 30s, the coldest we have
seen so far this season across the Interior. Rain and snow showers
will continue across the Eastern Interior north to the Arctic
Coast for Monday, ahead of drier conditions build in Tuesday as
that ridge continues to shift east.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Tuesday through next Friday.
Ensemble guidance begins to diverge mid to late next week with a
range of solutions on the pattern into early October. Guidance is
struggling to capture the extent of a ridge building over the
Bering Sea, and how it interacts with the ongoing pattern over
Alaska. There has been increasing chances towards a trough and
associated low pressure system building out of Siberia into the
Bering Sea by mid to late week, that would support a return of
rain and snow chances across the West Coast along with an increase
in wind along the coast. Later in the week, there is also the
potential for yet another storm to build into the Bering Sea, but
we will have to see exactly if this more active pattern in the
Bering returns. Stay tuned as we track how this pattern evolves
over the coming days.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
&&
$$

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion