Fackler, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

315
FXUS64 KHUN 240755 AAB
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
255 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Current two AM observations show an area of showers, storms, and
low clouds entering NW AL and progressing SE. This trend will
continue over the next few hours with showers and thunderstorms
likely in north central AL and southern middle TN by sunrise.
Ongoing showers and storms are supported by the passage of a weak
short wave along the base of a much larger longwave trough. This
shortwave is set to move through the TN Valley by midday with our
first round of showers and thunderstorms eroding through the
morning. Without much CAPE present morning storms look to be non
severe.
While we may not see total clearing, coverage of showers, storms,
and clouds looks to wane by midday. This will give the TN Valley a
chance to heat up and destabilize ahead of another round of storms
in the afternoon as a surface low and attached cold front prompt
storms along and ahead of the front. This will be our main severe
threat with a marginal risk for damaging winds in place for all
north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. This threat will be
supported by 1000-1500 J/KG of surface CAPE and about 20 KTs of
shear. Multi cell clusters look to be the prevailing storm mode
generally moving from NW to SE from 2-10 PM. Storms will likely
be competing against each other for space and energy, thus there
will likely be some distinction between storms, meaning not every
storms will be severe. Those that can effectively take in the
favorable environmental parameters will be capable of gusts up to
60 MPH frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Other competing
storms will likely be reduced to just general thunderstorms.
As the cluster of storms moves SE, we will quickly be losing
daylight and thus losing instability. The severe risk looks to
greatly decrease after sunset with any lingering storms likely
being non severe. This however raises another concern: prolonged
heavy rainfall. PWATs have been steadily rising through the week
and now sit just below 2". With the added potential of convective
rainfall rates, storms will be capable of very efficient rainfall
production. HREF LLMP indicates the possibility of localized
amounts up to 3 inches. Should this fall in a short period of time
and or in areas that received heavy rainfall over the last few
days this could quickly lead to flooding concerns. For this reason
WPC has the entire area in a slight risk (2/4) for excessive
rainfall through tomorrow morning. While the HREF has trended
slightly drier overnight tonight, any additional rainfall could
add to ongoing flooding concerns.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The severe risk should gradually wind down late Wednesday night as
the support from diurnal heating weakens but lingering convection
will carry the risk for flooding through Thursday before a cold
front begins to usher in a welcomed cooler and drier airmass on
Friday. With an upper low slow to move east of the area on Friday,
some lingering showers may exist primarily east of I-65 but are
expected to be light and not pose any further risk for flooding.
Temperatures will drop to highs in the low 80s Friday afternoon as
clouds begin to clear the region from west to east and will set up
for a nice start to the weekend as any lingering rain should
clear the area by Friday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The forecast for much of the long term looks dry thanks to high
pressure over the mid MS River valley. Highs will top out near the
low to mid 80s each afternoon with lows in the upper 50s/lower
60s. Low rain and thunderstorm chances look to creep back in
early next week as the aforementioned upper low begins to shift
back west over the region resulting in an increase in moisture and
slightly warmer temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Low clouds and vicinity showers will impact MSL through the night
and into the morning. Beyond 12Z the forecast is quite uncertain.
Tried to capture trends in the the TAFs and will work to refine
exact timing and intensity of storms in future issuances. It is
likely some storms will be ongoing near sunrise around MSL and
dissipate through the morning. Additional storms are expected
through the afternoon, this will be the period with best chances
for lightning and or a convective gust of 25+ KTS. Beyond 0z,
storm intensity should wane with lower clouds and rain lingering
through the night.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RAD

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion