Erwin Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

337
FXUS64 KMRX 081118
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
718 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 510 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
- Very low chance for a lingering shower with light rain after
  daybreak this morning. Patchy fog early this morning.
- Lows are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s across the
  higher elevations of the far east Tennessee mountains for the
  latter half of the week. Portions of northeastern Tennessee into
  southwestern Virginia are likely to drop into the upper 30s
  Friday morning.
- More fall temperatures and dry weather expected from Thursday
  onwards through this weekend. A slight warming trend Sunday into
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Nighttime microphysics and local observations show a swath of
clearing skies between the last of the rain showers and a band of
clouds over Kentucky. The consequence of this is several locations
are forming fog to varying thicknesses. Expect patchy fog,
locally dense, early this morning. Any low clouds will thin as the
day progresses.
Once the front is gone, a surface high pressure ridge will move in
accompanied by drier air. Classic physics based and AI guidance both
keep Thursday onwards through the weekend as near or completely dry,
despite a weak shortwave passing through on Thursday on its way
to the seaboard. Temperatures will dip slightly to near or
slightly below longtime averages again. Higher elevations of the
mountains, and portions of far northeastern Tennessee into
southwest Virginia will dip into the 30s Friday (and potentially)
Saturday mornings.
Sunday a coastal low and a Canadian low will be fusing together over
the Mid-Atlantic states, ensemble consensus keeps us dry during that
period with high pressure still sneaking down into Tennessee.
Otherwise, long range guidance looks remarkably dry as a building
upper ridge heading into next week induces a gentle warming
trend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Some fog and low clouds to start, and there will be isolated
showers around early mainly TRI and TYS. However, we will see an
improving trend with VFR conditions expected all sites by early
afternoon and then continuing through the end of the period.
Light winds to start will generally become north around 10 kts
today.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             80  58  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  76  53  72  49 /  10   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       75  52  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              71  45  71  40 /  20   0   0   0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...99

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion