Erwin, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

067
FXUS64 KMRX 141057
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
657 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Key Messages:
1. Above normal temperatures expected through the period, with highs
in the 80s for much of next week.
2. Rain chances appear to remain negligible outside of the
mountains.
Discussion:
Currently some weak and isolated showers working their way southward
through Central Kentucky from some remnant outflow further to the
north. There is a slim chance that these could remain in tact long
enough to bring a quick sprinkle to some parts of northeast TN...
However unlikely, but will have low end PoP chances for a brief
period overnight tonight to account for this possibility.
The trough along the southeast coast evolves into a closed low on
tonight into Monday and looks to linger over the Carolinas for a few
days before drifting northward on Wednesday. This will have little
impact on our weather, except perhaps for some isolated showers in
the mountain zones Tuesday and Wednesday, although the ECMWF
continues to be more bullish on precip for us. The main story for
most of the area will be the continued warm temperatures through
next week, with highs well into the 80s each day, and possibly near
90 in Chattanooga.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
A few isolated showers are making their way north through Middle
TN. They could come within the vicinity of KCHA in the first few
hours of this TAF cycle, but certainty is too low to mention as FM
group.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             88  63  87  63 /  10   0  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  85  62  85  63 /  10   0  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       85  62  85  62 /  10   0  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  58  81  59 /  10   0  10  10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion