Emeryville California Weather Forecast Discussion

401
FXUS66 KMTR 090853
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
153 AM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 AM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025
- Increasing clouds and cool with areas of drizzle
- Light rain chances increase Friday through Saturday morning for
the North Bay
- Confidence increasing for widespread wetting rain the first half
of next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 151 AM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025
(Today and tonight)
A surface trough extending from NorCal south to offshore of the
Central Coast will linger along the coastline today as the first of
several upper level shortwave troughs ejects east from the base of
the upper closed low to our north. Light rain and/or drizzle is
expected to persist across the North Bay most of today into tonight,
while coastal locations from the Bay Area south down to the Big Sur
will see periods of drizzle through most of the morning into the
early afternoon. As the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast
deepens and slowly pushes onshore tonight into tomorrow a cold front
will drop temperatures in the North Bay into the mid-40s by early
Friday morning, with 50s most other locations, except for higher
elevation areas of the Central Coast that will also drop into the
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 151 AM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025
(Friday through Wednesday)
Light rain chances linger across the North Bay Friday and begin to
taper off by early Saturday morning behind a second cold front that
won`t impact day time highs much, with temperatures rebounding under
sunny skies and a drier airmass Saturday afternoon. Upper level
shortwave ridging Saturday will result in a pleasant day area wide
under mostly sunny skies. Sunday will be similar to Saturday while
the upper level pattern shifts to zonal flow across the region. By
Monday the next rainmaker starts deepening to our north. Consensus
is improving with increasing confidence of multiple rounds of
wetting rain area wide from late Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 936 PM PDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Very deep marine layer evident on the 00Z OAK sounding promoting
cloud cover largely unphased by terrain in the North Bay. Elsewhere,
some low level drying due to winds off of terrain allowing cloud
layers to mix out. This will likely change over the next few hours
as the trough moves through and promotes widespread cloud cover and
-DZ generally north of KHAF. Did introduce TEMPO -SHRA to account
for isolated pockets of "heavier" precip with a more intense line
of ascent progged to move through before sunrise. Otherwise
terminals outside the North Bay likely to clear to VFR by late
morning, lasting the rest of the period.
Vicinity of SFO...Cloud cover increasing by the midnight hour and
high confidence of -DZ through the morning hours. As mentioned
above, slight chance of heavier precip (-SHRA) just before sunrise,
but lower confidence in timing due to spotty nature. Relatively
light southerly winds through sunrise will give way to onshore flow
by the early afternoon. VFR through the rest of the period once the
-DZ ends mid-morning.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Lingering southerly component of the
winds will help keep stratus at bay, literally speaking, through
tonight. Slight chance of cloud cover increasing as temps cool
around sunrise, but moderate confidence in remaining VFR.
Otherwise, high confidence VFR forecast through the rest of
Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 840 PM PDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Gentle to moderate southwest winds will gradually shift back to a
northwest breeze Thursday. Northwesterly winds increase to a
strong breeze late Saturday, building rough seas by Sunday.
Disturbed conditions with periods of rain and gusty winds are
expected across the waters early next week.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...Flynn
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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion