El Llanito, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

983
FXUS65 KABQ 271138 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
538 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 532 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- A storm system will draw subtropical moisture northward over
  northern and central New Mexico with scattered to numerous
  showers and thunderstorms through Sunday, then spottier
  lingering precipitation into Monday.
- Much of central and western New Mexico are expected to receive
  rain amounts between 0.25 and 1.50 inches. However, a few
  locations may receive 2 to 3 inches due to repeated rounds of
  storms. The greatest concern for flash flooding will be below
  the Ruidoso area burn scars.
- After a cool start to the coming week, dry and warmer conditions
  are expected Tuesday through Friday with seasonably breezy
  winds each afternoon.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 532 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Did some minor tweaks to PoPs through the afternoon based on
current radar and hi-res model trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 120 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
The upper level low over SoCal will move little today, but several
disturbances rounding the upper low will move across NM bringing
multiple rounds of rainfall. First, an elongated vort
max/disturbance this morning arcing from west central to south
central NM will shift northward through the morning hours.
Isolated showers will develop along this disturbance and there`s a
low chance for a thunderstorm or two as well, but little
instability exists this morning. Before this activity ends,
diurnal heating and additional forcing from a 65kt upper level jet
pushing into southwest areas will allow this afternoon`s activity
to ramp up. Storms this afternoon look to favor areas along and
near the Central Mountain Chain as well as portions of northwest
NM. All-in-all though, models are not that enthusiastic about
precipitation amounts, with most areas less than one half inch,
likely owning to the weak instability limiting rainfall rates. The
one exception, unfortunately, appears to be around Ruidoso where
some (not all) CAMs suggest higher amounts. These higher amounts
could hold off until overnight or early Sunday morning when
another disturbance moves into south central areas and shifts
northeastward. This disturbance will keep shower and thunderstorm
activity going through the overnight hours, especially across
south central NM where additional rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1"
appear likely. In general, thunderstorm activity will slowly wane
through the overnight hours, but showers will continue.
There probably won`t be much of a break in the activity before
Sunday afternoon`s round of thunderstorms develop. The upper low
will eject northeastward from SoCal across AZ on Sunday and weaken
into an open wave. This will provide much more ascent across NM
for storms, though with precipitation continuing all of Saturday
night, the amount of available instability Sunday afternoon will
be in question and current models vary widely on the topic.
History suggests instability will be lacking with the cooler
temperatures and cloud cover, so while there may be numerous
storms because of the widespread ascent, rainfall rates should be
lower. Storms should favor the area btw the ContDvd and the east
slopes of the Central Mountain Chain. There may be repeated rounds
of precipitation, so total rainfall amounts between 0.25" and
1.00" will be common, though isolated totals near 2" appear to be
a reasonable high end scenario.
A Flash Flood Watch was issued yesterday afternoon for the
Ruidoso burn scars today, but given storms will continue through
the overnight hours and again on Sunday, the watch was extended
through 9pm Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 120 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Storms should gradually diminish in coverage and intensity Sunday
evening and overnight. The remaining upper level trough will
continue to trek eastward across NM on Monday. It doesn`t look
like the dry air will filter in quite as fast on Monday should
isolated to scattered storms will persist over the CWA, but
overall, there should be a significant downtrend in coverage and
amounts. Areas around Ruidoso will still need a watchful eye
as scattered storms develop around the area, but amounts should be
relatively light (

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion