Echo Park, California Weather Forecast Discussion

819
FXUS66 KLOX 271740
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1040 AM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...27/833 AM.
Cooler than normal conditions will persist through at least the
middle of next week with a deep marine layer and periods of
drizzle. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
mainly in the mountains, with light rain possible along the
Central Coast around Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...27/844 AM.
***UPDATE***
A unprecedented 4000 ft marine layer continues to drape over the
coast, valleys, and lower coastal slopes. The same upper low that
has been impacting our weather the last week still has not yet
exited the state and is currently sitting over the southeastern
desert areas. This has pumped up the marine layer and is also
pulling in moisture and showers from desert southwest. The storms
that are in progress this morning appear headed for areas well
south of LA County. However, there is another area of moisture
farther north that may impact areas south of Pt Conception this
afternoon, especially the mountains. With a favorable northeast
flow aloft, storms that initiate over the mountains and deserts
could spill over into the coast and valley areas so there are rain
and storm chances at lower elevations as well, though the
mountains and deserts certainly have the best chance before the
storms weaken.
***From Previous Discussion***
A slow moving upper level low, currently centered over extreme
southeast California, will keep a steady stream of moist northeast
to southeast flow over southwest California. With precipitable
water values around 1.5 inches through early Sunday, a risk of
showers and thunderstorms will be with us through the weekend. A
stray shower could form anywhere over LA County this morning, as
one just tried to form over Long Beach. By this afternoon, the
instability peaks with models showing a few disturbances from
convection to the east which would be enough to initiate
convection over our area. As such, there is a 10-60% chance of
showers and a 10-30% chance of thunderstorms anywhere. While most
areas will see a tenth of an inch of rain or less (if any) with
minimal impacts, it is likely that the heaviest cell or two in our
area will produce rain rates in the 0.50 to 0.75 inch per hour
range models continue to show. This means that there is a low but
present threat of flash flooding and burn scar debris flows if
the heaviest cell forms over a vulnerable area. The higher chances
in the shower and thunderstorm ranges just mentioned are over the
mountains and deserts of LA and Ventura Counties. Most models
continue to highlight the Ventura County Mountains in particular.
With the northeast to east steering flow aloft, any storm that
forms over the mountains will head towards the more populated
valleys and coasts. In addition to the rain, any thunderstorm
will also be capable of producing brief strong winds and dangerous
lightning. By Sunday, with moisture lingering but on the decline,
there is a small chance of an afternoon shower over the mountains.
The marine layer will remain very deep through the middle of next
week. Drizzle at times is likely, especially in the hilly areas
will some light accumulations are possible each morning. With
cooler air mass associated with the low, and the ample clouds,
temperatures will remain much below normal (by 6 to 12 degrees).
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...27/355 AM.
A cold low pressure system, currently near Kodiak Alaska, will
drop into the Pacific Northwest waters by Monday and wobble
around for a day or two. This will spawn two distinct fronts that
might pack a punch for areas to the north, but will be a whimper
of their former selves by the time they make it down to the
southern half of California. The latest guidances weaken them more
than yesterdays projections, with rain now looking unlikely even
for the Central Coast. Could still see a scenario however where
either of these features interact with the marine layer to enhance
the drizzle on the Central Coast, or far less likely they could
pull up some of the remnants of Hurricane Narda. Drizzle is still
possible each morning over any coastal area. There might be some
gusty post-frontal west winds on Wednesday after they pass.
Temperatures will remain well below normal through at least the
middle of next week. Another trough over the west now looks
likely for the back half of next week - more so than a warming
ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...27/1739Z.
At 1704Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3400 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was around 4800 feet with a temperature of 17 C.
Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package. Timing of flight
cat changes may be off by +/- 2 hours, and flight cats may be off
by one cat at times through the period.
There is a 15-25% chance for isolated thunderstorms at KSBA,
KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX, KLGB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF through
06Z Sun. Any thunderstorm can produce gusty erratic winds, frequent
lightning, heavy rain, and small hail.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance for
thunderstorms through 06Z Sun. Generally expecting MVFR CIGs
015-030, with a likely chance of VFR conditions at times this
afternoon. There is a 30% chance for an east wind component
reaching 8 kts from 10Z to 18Z Sunday.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight cat
changes may be off 2 hours. 20% chance for thunderstorms between
through 06Z Sun. There is a 30% chance of IFR conditions from 08Z
to 16Z Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...27/734 AM.
Winds and seas are likely to remain below Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels for all coastal waters through Wednesday. There is a
30% chance of SCA wind developing Wednesday night for the central
and southern outer waters as well as the western portions of the
east Santa Barbara Channel.
There is a slight chance of Thunderstorms across the nearshore
waters south of Point Conception this afternoon and evening. Any
thunderstorms that develop would be capable of producing locally
gusty winds and rough seas, dangerous lightning, heavy rainfall
with reduced visibility and small hail.
Seas will peaking at around 6 to 9 feet today the Outer waters.
Sunday into early next week, a southerly swell of 4 to 6 feet will
impact the coastal waters and may produce issues for exposed
south facing harbors.
&&
.BEACHES...27/235 AM.
A moderately-long period southerly swell will develop across the
coastal waters Sunday into early next week, generated by
Hurricane Narda. Hazardous rip currents and elevated surf are
likely for south-facing beaches, especially across Los Angeles and
Ventura Counties, as well as Avila Beach and Port San Luis for
the Central Coasts. Additionally, particularly vulnerable south-
facing beaches may see shallow coastal flooding over normally dry
beach areas.
As a result, a Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for all
exposed south-facing beaches for Sunday through Wednesday. Surf is
expected to be 4 to 7 feet, with local max sets up to 8 feet for
the Central Coast.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Sunday morning through
      Wednesday afternoon for zones 87-340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Kittell
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Lewis/Schoenfeld/Black
BEACHES...Sirard/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion