Duncan Falls, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

746
FXUS61 KPBZ 221739
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
139 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorm could occur this evening with a
passing disturbance. Rain chances remain elevated throughout
week with slightly above-average temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Strong to severe storms could occur today
- Rain chances increase late this evening into the overnight
  time period
- Potential for heavy rain in localized areas
---------------------------------------------------------------
Radar and satellite imagery this morning show a large are of
showers and thunderstorms moving through Indiana and western
Ohio, tied to an upper-level trough progressing across the Great
Lakes and Midwest. Over the next 6 hours, convection chances are
expected to expand into eastern Ohio and then western
Pennsylvania within deep southwest flow.
A brief window of severe thunderstorms may open after 5pm
across southern Ohio as low-level shear increases to 35-45kts.
Joint probabilities of effective shear (+40kts) and surface
instability (>500J/kg) reach 25-35% in eastern Ohio, supporting
the Storm Prediction Center`s upgrade to a "Slight" risk. Severe
potential diminishes quickly after sunset due to cooling at the
surface and lingering shower activity disrupting instability.
Damaging wind gusts remain the primary threat, while hail and
tornado threats are low.
Overnight, above-average temperatures are expected with elevated
dew points and cloud cover limiting radiational cooling. Showers
will likely persist beyond midnight. Heavier bands of rain are
possible west and north of Pittsburgh through midnight, with
localized totals potentially exceeding 1 inch. Probabilities of
>1 inch of rain ranges from 30-55% near I-80 and in eastern
Ohio.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cloud cover will limit the heating on Tuesday but showers and
  thunderstorms are still expected.
----------------------------------------------------------------
The increased cloud cover will limit heating on Tuesday to keep
area CAPE likely below the 1000 J/kg threshold for severe
concerns given shear will remain sub-optimal. Still a few
instances of thunderstorm wind gusts are still possible. Brief
shortwave ridging between shortwave movement likely will yield a
drier overnight period Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the cold
front has moved through the region leaving mush cooler
conditions for Wednesday. The amount of instability will be
minimal but showers will be expected through the day on
Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Elevated precipitation chances through Saturday
- Near average temperatures
- Mainly dry conditions return by Sunday.
------------------------------------------------------------------
A stalled trough positioned between the Great Lakes and the
Mississippi River Valley will bring the region periods of
clouds, rain chances, and near-normal temperatures through the
latter part of the week.
Ensemble guidance suggests Thursday into Friday may offer the
greatest potential for more widespread rainfall, supported by
enhanced jet dynamics tied to the trough. Increasing southwest
moisture transport will likely push PWAT values into the 1.5 to
1.7 inch range, with a deep warm cloud layer extending above
13kft. Rainfall totals from Thursday morning through Saturday
morning are expected to range from 0.4 to 0.75 inches, with
locally higher amounts (over an inch) possible, especially near
and within the ridges and south of Pittsburgh. Given dry
antecedent soils and sufficient shear to keep convective
progressive, the flood threat is considered `low`.
Afternoon high temperatures will likely hold near the mid-70s
(close to average) during this time period, while overnight lows
trend about 5 degrees above normal due to elevated dew points
and limited radiational cooling. The extended wet pattern will
take a break by Sunday as the last of the moisture exits the
area leaving high pressure to infiltrate the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
More ample low-level moisture is trapped around 2-4kft and has
led to a broken VFR/MVFR Cu field across the region today. This
is expected to continue through the afternoon.
The crossing shortwave has begun to spur thunderstorm
development west of us and these storms are expected to
progress eastward late this afternoon and this evening. Storms
are expected to congeal into a messy complex and could pose a
threat for isolated wind damage as well as periods of lowered
VIS in heavy rain. These storms have been timed out using TEMPO
groups for all but our far eastern ports (PROB30s) where the
instability available weakens and probability of impact begins
to drop.
Behind this line of showers and storms, CIGs and VIS are
expected to drop quickly with most ports sporting a 60% or
greater chance to be down to IFR by 06z Tuesday. CIGs are
expected to bottom out near the IFR/LIFR border with VIS
impacts in remaining showers and mist likely through the
overnight period.
.OUTLOOK....
Restrictions are expected to lift through the day Tuesday
giving way to general VFR. Restrictions can return with
approaching low pressure and additional rain across the area
Wednesday into Friday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Hefferan/Shallenberger
AVIATION...AK

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion