625 FXUS64 KOHX 101111 AFDOHXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 611 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 609 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
- Dry pattern will prevail through at least the next 7 days.
- Warming trend with highs mostly upper 80s to lower 90s late this week and some mid to upper 90s next week.
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.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
The national picture shows a ridge over the center of the nation with upper level troughs to each side. The ridge will be the main player in our wx through the next 7 days as it gradually shifts eastward and sets up from the Great Lakes to Gulf Coast.
But, before the ridge axis moves overhead, there will be a couple of weak disturbances that rotate around the periphery of the ridge into the eastern trough. The NBM continues to give us a dry forecast with limited atmospheric moisture for rainfall production. But, a few HREF ensemble members are spitting out a couple of stray showers late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Cape values will be increasing, a few hundred Wednesday PM and about 1000 by Thursday PM as precipitable water values rise over 1.25". This may be just enough for a couple of little showers, but not enough to justify "mentionable" pops above 10 percent at this time. Overall, most areas will stay dry.
Otherwise, temperatures will creep upward over the next couple of days, and humidity will increase slightly.
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.LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A strong ridge axis overhead will bring dry conditions with very warm to hot days (5 to 8 degrees above normal) and seasonable nights. Daytime highs will reach mostly upper 80s to mid 90s. Thanks to reasonable humidity levels, daytime heat index values will be kept in check, mostly below the actual temperatures. The low humidity will also allow temperatures to cool off into the 60s each night. The dry desert-like pattern will hold through this forecast period and likely beyond as the 8 to 14 day outlook keeps conditions warm and dry.
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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Patchy fog is resulting in MVFR to IFR visibilities across portions of the area this morning, including at CSV, SRB, and MQY. These will improve back to VFR around 13Z. Winds will be light and variable throughout the period with just streaming mid to high- level clouds.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 89 65 90 62 / 0 10 10 0 Clarksville 90 63 91 60 / 10 10 10 0 Crossville 79 58 80 54 / 0 0 10 0 Columbia 88 63 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 81 60 83 56 / 0 0 10 0 Jamestown 79 59 81 55 / 0 10 10 0 Lawrenceburg 86 62 88 59 / 0 0 10 0 Murfreesboro 88 63 89 59 / 0 0 10 0 Waverly 88 63 90 61 / 0 10 0 10
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.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Clements
NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion