Dover, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

775
FXUS61 KPBZ 290617
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
217 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected through the week with high pressure in
control. Above normal temperatures will cool to more seasonable
values the second half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues
- Patchy dense fog is possible early this morning.
---------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure centered just north of the area over New York
will be the dominant feature, maintaining dry conditions and
above normal temperatures today. Little change in the overall
synoptic pattern favors a persistence forecast. Ensemble
guidance continues to show the potential for patchy dense fog
development this morning, with the best chances (around 40-60%)
generally north and west of Pittsburgh due to increasing cloud
coverage to the east.
Lows should bottom out in the mid to upper 50s for most, except
north of I-80 where low 50s are forecast.
Another dry and unseasonably warm day is on tap as surface high
pressure remains in control. The only notable difference will
be an increase in cloud coverage from the southeast with
moisture extending north from Tropical Depression Nine. Highs
are thus likely to be just a touch cooler than observed
yesterday, especially south and east of Pittsburgh where cloud
cover resides for more of the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warm conditions continue
- Rain from tropical system still expected to stay to our south
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fog development is likely to be much less overnight with
increased cloud coverage. Low temperatures will also be higher
due to the increase in clouds.
All ensembles continue to support high pressure quickly building and
sinking south through Ontario on the heels of the weekend`s
departing high. Daily trends continue to favor a stronger, quicker
building high which favors a dry, warmer solution locally as TD9
turns east offshore of the Carolinas. Skies will remain cloudy,
especially for Pittsburgh south and east, wit some more uncertainty
with how far north and west the cloud shield extends. Despite the
light northeast flow and clouds, little airmass modification is
expected so probability for highs again reaching 80 degrees is at 70-
80% where clouds will be less prevalent. Latest NBM continues to
back off rain mention for nearly all of our area with only a slight
chance creeping into Tucker County early Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Prevailing dry weather with temperatures trending closer to normal
  by mid to late week
-------------------------------------------------------------------
With the increased cloud coverage, temperatures are likely to fall
off closer to normal (low 70s) by mid-week as the placement of the
surface high promotes cool, dry northerly flow. Rain chances through
week`s end are nil as all ensembles exhibit good agreement on the
high sinking into the New England region and strengthening quite a
bit as it does so. Headed into the weekend, the upper level pattern
amplifies with strong ridging overhead as longwave troughing
establishes across the western CONUS. Aside from some weaknesses
riding atop the ridge, ensemble clusters favor it to remain strong,
and the surface high stays well established overhead. Temps may
moderate a bit by next weekend but dry weather prevails.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Patchy MVFR fog is possible tonight, with IFR in the more
favored airports near river valleys. The latest HREF
probabilities show the most favorable location for fog from
PHD-HLG. A weak boundary was located in this area as well, where
minimal low level moisture pooling is possible.
Otherwise, VFR is expected through the TAF period, with cirrus
increasing well to the north of the tropical low off of the SE
coast.
.OUTLOOK....
Outside of morning vly fog, VFR is expected through late week
under high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...MLB/88
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...WM

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion