Dogwood Golf Center New York Weather Forecast Discussion

005
FXUS61 KALY 111746
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
146 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds, but primarily dry day today as an upper level
disturbance approaches from the west and high pressure departs
to the east. Continued uncertainty surrounding an impending
coastal storm makes for a difficult forecast for the end of the
Holiday weekend, but there remains moderate to high confidence
in at least areas within and south of the Capital District
having measurable rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
- Uncertainty surrounding the evolution of an impending coastal
  system continues to limit confidence in resulting rainfall
  totals Sunday afternoon through Monday. However,
  probabilities for at least 1" remain about 50-70% from the
  Capital District, south, and east.
Discussion:
The surface anticyclone that has dominated the region over the
last several days now rests off the coast of Cape Cod, yielding
falling heights across eastern New York and western New England
as a closed low enters the eastern Great Lakes as seen on latest
infrared satellite imagery. Throughout the day, this low will
dig farther south-southeast into the eastern Great Lakes/western
New York/northeast Ohio Valley area, though dry conditions will
be maintained as upper- level southwesterly flow advects dry
air into the region about its forward flank from a building
ridge in the Plains/Midwest. Despite the continued surface
dryness, clouds will be on the increase both from this
disturbance and an area of low pressure beginning to take shape
along the Southeast Coast. Given this, highs today will be
widely in the 60s with upper 50s across higher terrain areas.
Tonight, the low slides a bit farther east into our CWA,
bringing some highly scattered, light rain showers, mainly to
portions of the Eastern Catskills and western Mohawk Valley,
though an isolated sprinkle or two also cannot be ruled out in
the Mid-Hudson Valley. All other areas will remain dry, and,
with more extensive cloud coverage, lows will certainly be more
mild in comparison to recent nights with values in the upper 30s
to low 50s. Attention then shifts to Sunday through Monday
where unremitting uncertainty in the evolution of an impending
coastal system poses a considerable forecast challenge.
By Sunday morning, the low aloft that looks to reside more or
less overhead looks to weaken in response to a building ridge
and eventual anticyclone over the Canadian Maritimes.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned area of low pressure currently
located in the deep Southeast will strengthen and make a
northward push after undergoing cyclogenesis, both at the
surface and aloft, near the coast of the Carolinas on Saturday.
As the coastal surface low begins to drift northward Sunday
morning, a vorticity maximum pulsing about the northeast
periphery of the associated upper low looks to translate into
the development of a secondary coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic
Coast. Aloft, the northerly low overhead of or closely adjacent
to our region and the upper low in the Southeast look to
continually weaken until both are absorbed into a larger-scale
trough that encompasses the entire East Coast by Sunday
afternoon. Based on relatively close consensus in latest sources
of guidance, there is moderate to high confidence in the
evolution of the environment up until this point. However, what
follows is where the most uncertainty comes into play.
The spatial spread and amounts of rain that are seen across
eastern New York and western New England are going to be highly
dependent on what occurs with the "secondary" coastal low.
However, the classification of "secondary" really only stands to
describe the chronological order of the formation of the
surface lows. In favored solutions, at this time, the
"secondary" low really becomes the primary and will be the
feature of interest in terms of the resulting conditions seen
across our CWA. Now, that said, the depictions of the track of
this new primary low continue to be highly varied with some
ensembles resolving a more east-northeast trajectory and others
north-northeast. The likely causing factor of this variation is
the depicted position and strength of the previously mentioned
developing anticyclone over the Canadian Maritimes. This
feature, in some cases, looks to remain stationary overhead the
track of the coastal low which would stunt it`s progress to the
east. Additionally, with a ridge maintained over the
Midwest/western Ohio Valley and another upper-level anticyclone
in the southwest Atlantic, the track of the low could be forced,
or blocked, on a rather narrow path. This solution would bring
the coastal low closer to the upper Mid- Atlantic and Long
Island Coastlines, yielding more widespread and potentially
heavier rainfall especially for the Mid-Hudson Valley, Eastern
Catskills, and southwest New England from Sunday afternoon
through Monday. However, another very realistic possibility is
the more east- northeast track of the coastal low which would
result from the high in the southwest Atlantic being even
farther offshore and the crest of the ridge to the west
extending farther eastward. Here, the deformation axis of
heaviest rainfall would be displaced to the east such that we
see less in the way of rainfall amounts and less widespread or
consistent areas of locally heavier rainfall Sunday afternoon
through Monday. According to the latest run of the NBM, QPF
amounts have lowered a bit and the spatial spread of higher
probabilities of at least one inch of rainfall has decreased,
owing to a closer solution like the latter described situation.
That said, probabilities for at least one inch of rainfall still
remain around 50-70% from the Capital District south and east.
Rainfall totals across eastern New York and western New England
currently range from about 0.3" in the Adirondacks to a little
over an inch and a half for a small portion of the Mid- Hudson
Valley and Litchfield County through Monday. We will reiterate
here, too, that these rainfall amounts are all beneficial and
flooding is not a concern.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the coastal system departs, scattered showers will linger
Monday night into Tuesday morning, but by Tuesday afternoon dry
conditions will resume once again. The remainder of the week
will feature mainly dry conditions, though a passing
disturbance and cold front could bring some isolated to
scattered showers Wednesday.
High temperatures throughout the long term period will begin in
the 50s and 60s Tuesday and Wednesday before we drop into the
40s and 50s Thursday. Friday`s highs will be similar to those of
Tuesday and Wednesday, though a few degrees cooler with upper
40s across higher terrain and 50s to near 60 elsewhere. Lows
will start out in the upper 30s to upper 40s Monday night and
Tuesday night before falling to the upper 20s to 30s Wednesday
night and Thursday night. Expect 30s and low 40s Friday night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected across all sites
this afternoon through the overnight hours. A greater
coverage of clouds is expected at KPOU/KPSF through this
afternoon but bases should remain above 3000 ft. FEW-SCT
coverage of fair weather cu is expected at KALB/KGFL. Some
clearing is expected tonight before clouds thicken and lower
between 12-18z/Sun from south to north as a coastal low
approaches, resulting in the transition to some MVFR cigs. Rain
showers may approach KPOU toward the end of the TAF period so
introduced this with a VCSH at 16z/Sun. Light/variable wind
through tonight will become northeasterly at around 10 kt on
Sunday with some higher gusts to around 20 kt, especially at
KPSF/KPOU.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Columbus Day: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...RA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A coastal low will track close to the the NJ and Long Island
Coast Sunday through Monday. Minor tidal flooding may occur in
the mid Hudson Valley from Kingston south to Poughkeepsie late
Sunday through Monday. The latest NERFC forecast for PKMN6 is
projecting minor tidal flooding early Sunday evening into Monday
morning.
Please monitor our latest forecasts on the NWPS page at
https:/water.noaa.gov/area/ALY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...33
HYDROLOGY...15/37

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion