Dinsmore, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

760
FXUS62 KJAX 271106
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
706 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorm Coverage Today. Main Storm Hazards: Gusty Winds & Brief Flooding Rainfall
- Tropical Development Near the Bahamas Expected this Weekend. Dangerous
  beach and boating conditions late Sunday into next week.
  Tropical Storm Conditions Possible Coastal Waters Beginning
  Monday. Monitor forecasts at hurricanes.gov
- Moderate Rip Current Risk Today
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
At 2 AM Saturday, a deep layer trough continues from the Ohio Valley
area southward to the Gulf with an associated surface cold front
from western GA southward to the FL panhandle. Light patchy rain
is over the area at this time and anticipate some areas of low
clouds and patches of fog into the early morning.
The front and trough will continue to slowly push eastward today while
sufficient lift and moisture is available to kick off showers and
potential thunderstorms through the morning and increasing during
the afternoon heating. Subtle shortwave troughs rounding the base
of the trough will enhance lift, especially for the eastern zones
where the best PWATs are located today. Thus, we continued to show
rain chances upwards of 40-60 percent for the eastern zones and
then 30-40 percent well inland. A couple of stronger storms, with
gusty winds as the main concern, are certainly possible this afternoon
given the MLCAPE of about 1500-1700 J/kg and 0-6 km shear of
25-30 kt. Heaviest rainfall potential is mainly from Duval county
southward, to include Clay, St Johns, Putnam, and Flagler
counties. The well inland areas will see some dry slot of air move
in as soon as 16z-18z, with the deep layer trough axis aligning
toward central GA and the FL Big Bend this afternoon and evening.
The front is forecast to move to a line from about Brunswick GA to
Gainesville FL this evening. With the amount of clouds and quite
a bit lower thickness values, max temps today will be in the mid
to upper 80s, highest over the southeast zones where more sun is
expected.
Tonight, we should see lingering isolated to scattered convection
in the evening with preference for the eastern zones where the
left-over Atlantic sea breeze and outflows are likely to be. Most
convection will dissipate overnight but still some potential for
convection around the coastal areas as the front will be in the
vicinity and it looks like convergence is adequate to support some
lift in that area. Lows tonight should only fall to the 60s and
lower 70s and patchy fog forecast over inland southeast GA to the
Suwanee Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Sunday: Onshore flow starts to pick up during the day Sunday and
into Sunday Night, especially near the coast, as Potential
Tropical Cyclone 9 (PTC9) slowly creeps across the Northern
Bahamas and high pressure ridging to our north strengthens
slightly. Given the stalled frontal boundary either just south of
the area or over far southeastern parts of the Northeast FL CWA
and some slightly drier air over western areas, chances for
showers and a few isolated t`storms will be mainly confined
towards the coasts and especially the NE FL coast. However, a few
showers and perhaps a t`storm could survive further inland during
peak heating by the afternoon and evening. Increasing onshore flow
will drop temps a bit closer to normal, with low to mid 80s
expected from about the I-95 corridor to the coast and upper 80s
inland.
Sunday Night: Pressure gradient continues to tighten overnight
with the approach of PTC9, especially over the waters and the
immediate coastline. Showers with a few t`storms area also likely
to start "pinwheeling" towards the coast and perhaps slightly
inland as some outer bands from PTC9 reach these areas. Typically,
the western side of a tropical system, especially moving east of
the Florida Peninsula, is the drier side with more of a continental
north to northwesterly flow dominating. However, it certainly
depends on the exact track, strength, and size of the system. In
this case, looks to be a close enough pass from at least a strong
tropical storm for some rainbands to affect areas that are closer
to the coast. Outside of the strengthening flow with the pressure
gradient alone, these bands will likely produce some stronger
gusts at times.
Monday & Monday Night: This period looks to be when the most significant
impacts occur, especially for the coasts and area waters. Sustained
winds and gusts are likely to reach their peak levels Monday and
Monday Night, with this period expected to be the closest point of
approach of PTC9. Of course, this will be heavily dependent on
the track of the system, as well as how much strength it gains as
it slowly moves parallel to the Florida coast through at least
Monday Night. Coastal/beach hazards are expected to ramp up on
Monday and into Monday Night, including high risk for life-
threatening rip currents, surf likely exceeding 6+ feet with
larger waves further offshore, and potential coastal flooding
depending on the strength and duration of onshore winds. Similar
to Sunday and Sunday Night, being on the western side of the
system is expected to limit expected rainfall at this time,
especially inland. However, current thinking is a close enough
pass for at least a few outer bands to affect mainly coastal
areas, similar to Sunday Night.
With all of the above being said, there are many aspects to the
forecast track and strength of PTC9 which are reducing confidence
with respect to expected impacts given the complex scenario and
synoptic setup. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts
from both weather.gov/jax and hurricanes.gov as confidence grows
over the next 12 to 24 hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
As with the last several days, the long term forecast continues
to be a low confidence one at this time given the complex synoptic
pattern and track/strength of PTC9. PTC9 looks to continue to
slowly move northward and approach the South Carolina coastline
through about Tuesday afternoon or evening before starting to
accelerate east/northeast away from the southeast US through
Wednesday/Thursday. Though there is potential for a slower
timeline than this, or even near stationary movement as the system
spins to our northeast, though confidence is still quite low with
respect to this possibility. As previously stated, current
forecast thinking favors the scenario of the system starting to
pull away from the southeast coastline by mid week. As the system
moves away, high pressure ridging builds further down the coast
and into northeast FL, likely setting up another northeasterly
wind event through the end of the week. Temperatures are likely to
start the long term near average before trending slightly below
average by late week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
We continue with chances of low clouds down to MVFR and IFR this
morning mainly through about 15z. Otherwise, there will be some
SHRA around the area with potential for some restrictions at
5-6SM. here will be increased potential for showers and storms
this afternoon with cig and vsby restrictions anticipated.
Convection will fade slowly after the 01z-02z time frame, but not
certain they will completely dissipate so left in convection
(VCSH) after 01z tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A weak cold front will move into the area today and linger over
the area into tonight and then dissipate. Northeast winds increase
Sunday and Monday as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine nears the
Bahamas. Increasing winds and building seas are forecast to reach
Advisory and possibly to tropical storm force levels by Monday as
the tropical system tracks north of the Bahamas. Thus, an extended
duration of strong winds and rough seas is likely early next
week. Local interests should monitor the latest forecasts on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine from the National Hurricane
Center.
Rip currents: A low-end moderate risk today with surf up to 2-3 ft
in some spots and onshore flow. The risk will be elevated again
on Sunday, potentially become high in some areas, mainly in northeast
FL. Increasing northeast winds Monday through mid week returns a
high rip current risk to local beaches. There is a high chance of
rough, high surf Monday into Tuesday as the tropical system passes
east of the local waters.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  67  87  68 /  40  20  20  20
SSI  84  71  84  72 /  60  40  50  60
JAX  87  71  87  72 /  60  40  50  40
SGJ  87  72  86  73 /  60  50  60  60
GNV  88  69  90  70 /  60  20  30  20
OCF  87  71  88  72 /  60  20  40  10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion