Des Montes New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

934
FXUS65 KABQ 121920
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
120 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025
- Flooding of small creeks, streams and arroyos, as well as low-
  lying areas, will be a concern where repeated rounds of
  precipitation occur through Tuesday night. The flash flood risk
  will be minimal but as remnant moisture from Tropical Storm
  Raymond crosses tonight through Tuesday, isolated flash flooding
  remains a concern, especially over the burn scars near Ruidoso.
  Elevated flows in main stem rivers will also possible.
- Dry and breezy conditions will return Thursday through the end
  of the week.
- Freezing temperatures are expected for much of northern, western
  and portions of central New Mexico Thursday night. This will be
  the first freeze of the season for areas in the Estancia
  Valley, San Agustin Plains and areas near Reserve. Should these
  areas not freeze Thursday night, Friday night will be another
  opportunity.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025
The remnants of T.S. Raymond are moving over Sonora and Sinaloa,
MX early this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows moisture from
this feature moving northeastward across the southeast half of
NM. Meanwhile, drier air is filtering into northern NM as the
first shortwave within a longer wave trough ejects northeastward
over the Central Rockies. This will keep precipitation chances
focused south of I-40 this afternoon and evening. However, as the
next upper low deepens and begins to dive southward along the west
coast overnight, south to southwesterly flow will increase
over NM. This will bring more of T.S. Raymond`s remnant moisture
northward, initially across central and western NM overnight
through Monday, then spreading across eastern NM by Tuesday
morning. Meanwhile, breezy westerly winds will prevail this
afternoon across eastern NM, but a backdoor cold front will push
southward across the plains overnight and westward through the
gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Monday morning. Drier air is
noted behind the front, which will keep eastern NM mostly dry
through Monday, though a few showers or thunderstorms could pop up
along the leading edge of the front as it moves through. A
breezy, easterly gap wind with gusts up to 35 mph will be noted in
the ABQ metro Monday morning, though winds should veer around to
the southeast by late morning or early afternoon. The extra lift
from the front along the east slopes of the western mountains to
the ContDvd may provide a focus for repeated rounds of
precipitation on Monday afternoon. PWATs will be greater than the
99th percentile on Monday afternoon, so storms will be efficient
rainfall producers. There looks to be slightly more instability
than with Priscilla`s remnants, so a few more thunderstorms seem
plausible Monday afternoon. However, that window will likely
close quickly Monday evening with the loss of daytime heating.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Top-down moistening will occur quickly Monday night through
Tuesday morning across eastern NM, though conditions will remain
quite stable through the day. Thus, showers will be the primary
mode of precipitation, and thunderstorms will be few. By Tuesday
afternoon, precipitation will really start to dwindle across far
western NM as a dry slot begins to punch in, and central and
eastern areas will be favored for precipitation.
Though the moisture remnants from Raymond will be long gone by
Wednesday, enough moisture will remain for it to be recycled in
the form of showers and thunderstorms across central and perhaps a
few areas of eastern NM Wednesday afternoon. Aiding the
development of showers and storms will be the upper low (that was
formerly diving down the west coast) shifting eastward across the
Great Basin, providing some weak ascent across NM. Ascent will be
greatest across northern NM, hence the highest PoPs will be
focused across the northern mountains. PWATs will have decreased,
though still above the 90th percentile in many areas so heavy rain
is a possibility. The dry slot will remain over western NM, so
precipitation is not forecast in this area.
As the upper low continues to shift northeastward on Thursday, the
dry slot will finally punch further into the state, and an
associated cold front will also shift from west to east. High
temperatures will be up to 10 degrees below normal across western
NM and dry conditions will prevail areawide.
Temperatures should drop quickly Thursday evening after the sun
goes down. Low temperatures will be near or below freezing across
much of northern and western NM, as well as portions of central
NM. The first freeze may occur Thursday night into Friday morning
for the Shiprock area, the Estancia Valley, San Agustin Plains
and areas of the San Francisco River Valley. These same areas will
have another chance to drop below freezing Friday Night into
Saturday morning, and Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, daytime highs for the late week period will be near to
below normal. A few daytime breezes can be expected as well for
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Drier air will filter into northern NM today, limiting
precipitation chances through this evening. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms will favor areas south of I-40 this afternoon.
Overnight, remnant moisture from T.S. Raymond will shift northward
across central and western NM, increasing shower chances through
the overnight hours. MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys can be expected with
shower activity, and patchy fog may also develop across south
central areas where rain occurs this afternoon. Additionally, a
backdoor cold front will push southward through eastern NM
overnight and through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain
Monday morning. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front,
including at KABQ where gusts may approach 30kt.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Tropical moisture from the remnants of T.S. Raymond will expand
across NM tonight through Tuesday, increasing the chances for
rainfall over the period. Several areas should receive wetting
precipitation. Precipitation becomes focused across north central
NM on Wednesday before a dry slot races across NM on Thursday,
eliminating precipitation chances. A cold front will also push
from west to east across the state on Thursday, which will keep
temperatures near to below normal for the late week period. A few
afternoon breezes can be expected late week, and RH values will
slowly decrease, but no fire weather concerns will persist through
the late week period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  69  52  74 /  20  70  70  20
Dulce...........................  41  64  45  69 /  40  80  90  50
Cuba............................  49  63  47  67 /  20  60  80  30
Gallup..........................  50  68  47  70 /  20  70  60   5
El Morro........................  49  65  47  70 /  20  90  60  10
Grants..........................  49  65  47  72 /  20  80  60  20
Quemado.........................  49  69  48  72 /  20  80  40  10
Magdalena.......................  52  64  52  70 /  30  70  40  30
Datil...........................  48  64  48  69 /  30  80  50  20
Reserve.........................  50  69  48  73 /  50  80  50  20
Glenwood........................  53  72  52  78 /  60  80  50  20
Chama...........................  39  59  43  64 /  30  80  80  50
Los Alamos......................  50  60  50  64 /  20  70  70  50
Pecos...........................  45  60  47  63 /  20  50  70  60
Cerro/Questa....................  42  65  46  67 /  10  40  60  30
Red River.......................  34  56  41  59 /  10  40  60  40
Angel Fire......................  31  59  40  62 /   5  40  50  50
Taos............................  42  66  46  69 /  10  40  60  40
Mora............................  39  59  42  63 /  10  40  60  60
Espanola........................  49  69  52  72 /  20  50  70  40
Santa Fe........................  49  63  51  66 /  20  50  70  60
Santa Fe Airport................  48  65  49  68 /  20  60  70  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  67  55  72 /  30  60  70  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  69  56  74 /  30  60  60  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  71  54  75 /  30  60  60  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  69  55  74 /  30  70  60  40
Belen...........................  54  71  54  76 /  30  60  50  30
Bernalillo......................  55  70  54  75 /  30  70  70  40
Bosque Farms....................  52  71  52  75 /  30  60  60  40
Corrales........................  55  71  54  75 /  30  70  70  40
Los Lunas.......................  53  71  53  76 /  30  60  60  40
Placitas........................  53  65  52  71 /  30  70  70  50
Rio Rancho......................  55  70  55  74 /  30  70  70  40
Socorro.........................  57  71  57  77 /  40  60  50  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  48  61  49  66 /  30  60  70  60
Tijeras.........................  51  63  51  68 /  30  60  70  60
Edgewood........................  48  62  49  68 /  30  60  70  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  63  47  69 /  30  60  60  60
Clines Corners..................  45  58  47  64 /  30  50  60  60
Mountainair.....................  50  63  50  69 /  30  60  60  60
Gran Quivira....................  49  64  50  70 /  40  60  60  60
Carrizozo.......................  53  68  54  74 /  50  60  60  40
Ruidoso.........................  49  62  50  68 /  50  60  60  50
Capulin.........................  39  58  45  62 /   5  10  40  20
Raton...........................  40  63  46  66 /   5  20  40  30
Springer........................  42  63  48  67 /   5  20  40  30
Las Vegas.......................  43  59  47  62 /  20  30  70  60
Clayton.........................  48  61  51  69 /   5  10  50  30
Roy.............................  46  62  49  64 /  10  20  60  40
Conchas.........................  52  67  54  72 /  20  20  70  50
Santa Rosa......................  52  63  53  68 /  20  40  70  50
Tucumcari.......................  52  67  53  75 /  20  30  70  40
Clovis..........................  57  69  56  76 /  20  40  50  30
Portales........................  58  71  56  76 /  30  50  50  30
Fort Sumner.....................  56  68  57  75 /  20  40  70  40
Roswell.........................  60  74  60  77 /  40  40  50  20
Picacho.........................  55  69  55  74 /  40  50  60  30
Elk.............................  51  69  52  74 /  50  50  60  30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion