Derma, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

814
FXUS64 KMEG 240457 AAA
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1157 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Another round of strong to severe storms is forecast for this
  afternoon, mainly along and east of the Mississippi River, ahead
  of an approaching cold front.
- A cold front will bring drier and much cooler air for the end
  of the week, with pleasant conditions expected for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The latest surface analysis places a weak surface low near the
AR/OK border with several remnant outflow boundaries scattered
amongst the Mid-South. Radar analysis shows a weak MCV driving
the ongoing convection along and south of I-40. Severity of
storms should remain nil and heavy rainfall will be the star of
the show during the overnight hours. Luckily, the Mid-South is
deep in drought conditions, but torrential rain rates will just
lead to quick runoff. The main concern of flooding will be in
urbanized areas or areas of poor drainage.
This MCV and aforementioned low will bring yet another messy,
shower and thunderstorm pattern for Wednesday as it begins a
northeast traverse. Saturated soils and abundant cloud coverage
should minimize severe weather threats north of I-40.  However,
south of I-40 and ahead of a cold front, HREF guidance continues
to advertise moderate instability developing by early to mid
afternoon across most of north Mississippi and portions of west
Tennessee near the TN River. Forecast soundings show only up to
20 knots of deep layer shear, which would limit overall storm
organization. Nonetheless, a Marginal Risk (1/5) for strong to
severe thunderstorms remains in effect for tomorrow afternoon
with damaging winds as the main threat.
The cold front will sweep through the entire Mid-South by
Thursday morning with scattered post-frontal showers during most
of the day. Conditions will dry out Friday as the upper-level
trough pushes to our east. The weekend will feature dry
conditions and highs in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.
DNM
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
00Z CAM consensus and latest HRRR runs depict limited chances for
TSRA during the 12Z-18Z time frame. This appears reasonable given
the stabilizing effects of this evening`s TSRA outflow.
TSRA chances appear best tied to the passage of an upper level
shortwave trough during the heat of the day. 00Z consensus places
MEM in the path of another ejecting cluster of TSRA during the
afternoon. At this time, it appears that TSRA will be off to the
south and east of the MEM TRACON by the Wednesday evening inbound
push.
PWB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Widespread wetting rainfall chances will maximize today as a cold
front sweeps across the area. Lingering scattered rain will occur
on Thursday as an upper level low slowly lifts out of the area.
Dry and warm conditions will return this weekend with minimum
relative humidity above 40% each day.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion