Delco, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

545
FXUS62 KILM 231804
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
204 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and mainly dry weather will continue through mid week with
high pressure the dominant weather feature. Unsettled weather
is likely late this week as a cold front impacts the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A very weak surface pressure pattern will continue to reside
across the area under a westerly flow aloft through Wednesday.
Decent convective cloud pattern in progress this afternoon and
this may yield a shower or two. For Wednesday guidance is
showing mostly dry conditions as the thermal profiles aren`t
quite as favorable for convection but wouldn`t be surprised to
see this change. Only slight chance pops would be the result
however. Highs Wednesday should be a bit above today`s readings
therefore most areas will approach or eclipse the 90 degree
mark.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Well above normal temps through the short term period as our
area will be in WAA regime ahead of an approaching cold front.
Low temps both Wednesday and Thursday night around 70F, possibly
low 70s Thursday night. High temps Thursday are forecasted to
be around 10 degrees above normal in the low 90s (away from the
coast where a healthy sea breeze will keep it a little
"cooler"). Plenty of instability could fire off scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening Thursday, though mid-
level lapse rates appear poor on forecast soundings. Best shear
looks to remain to our west on Thursday, closer to trough axis
and cold front. Pops remain in the forecast through Thursday
night as upper trough enters the Carolinas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather in store for the start of the long term
period as a cold front enters our area on Friday before stalling
near the coast through next weekend. High temps on Friday will
be lower than Thursday, due to increased clouds and rain
chances, but still slightly above normal. Confidence is low
regarding overlap of instability Friday with elevated shear
associated with the front, but will continue to monitor for
possible severe potential.
500mb trough over the Mississippi Valley Friday will transition
to a cutoff low over the Southeast for next weekend into early
next week. Combined with lingering front nearby, rain chances
are currently forecasted for each day of the long term period,
highest on Saturday with PWATs lingering around 2". High temps
cool back to near normal for next weekend into next week, while
low temps remain slightly above normal.
Regarding the tropics, there remains quite a lot of uncertainty
regarding invests AL93 and AL94. The models in particular are
struggling with the western most tropical wave (AL94) with
timing and location of any potential development. Monitor the
latest forecasts from NHC and weather.gov/ilm/tropical.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Persistence/VFR forecast for the most part until the early
morning hours Wednesday. With similar although not exacting
moisture profiles in place fog and br seems a good bet in all
areas. However since there wasn`t much this morning walked back
timing (approx 4 hours) and intensity (2SM IFR) for all sites.
Extended Outlook...Early-morning low cigs/vis remain a
possibility each day. Rain chances and associated vis/cig
restrictions become a possibility from Thursday onward.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Very quiet across the coastal waters
through Wednesday. East to southeast flow at times sea breeze
influenced of 5-10 knots will be the call. Significant seas 2-4
feet.
Wednesday Night through Sunday...WAA regime ahead of an
approaching cold front will maintain south-southwest winds over
the local coastal waters Wednesday night through Friday night,
peaking around 10-15 kts Thursday afternoon/evening. Winds
become more variable heading into next weekend as the front
looks to stall near the coast. Seas around 2-3 ft Wednesday
night into the weekend, briefly lowering to around 2 ft
Saturday, combination of southerly wind wave, weakening long
period E swell from Gabrielle on Thursday, and an 8 second ESE
swell entering the waters Friday. Scattered thunderstorms
forecasted over the waters beginning Thursday night, with
chances lingering into the weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for New
Hanover and Pender Counties today due to easterly swells
associated with distant tropical cyclone Gabrielle. An elevated
rip risk for east and southeast facing beaches will linger into
midweek.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...SHK/VAO
MARINE...SHK/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion