Defuniak Springs, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

069
FXUS62 KTAE 162345
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
745 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue Wednesday with
northeasterly flow gradually starting to become a bit more
easterly. While high temperatures will continue to be fairly close
to normal, abnormally dry conditions across the area will again
lead to cooler than normal low temperatures overnight. However, a
tiny bit of moisture return to the area, while still quite dry,
should keep us away from record cool lows.
&&
.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
A stationary low lee of the Apalachians Mountains enables a
positively tilted mid-level trough to the region over the next
several days. Northerly to northeasterly flow has brought a drier
air mass from the Great Lakes to our region due to the low`s
circulation. This low will begin to weaken through the remainder
of the week. Ultimately, this will transition the persistent northeasterly
flow to more easterly. This flow will slowly begin bring moisture
back to the region from the Atlantic through the weekend.
An upper level low in the Northern US can bring some deep troughing
early next week. This has the potential to increase rain chances as
a sufficient amount of moisture will be available from the
weekend. Heat indices for next week are also expected to creep up
in response to the increased humidity.
&&
.LONG TERM...
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Winds are
predominantly easterly and light. At KVLD there is a chance for BR
development at around 11Z, which may drop conditions to MVFR, but
confidence is low.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Gentle to moderate northeast breezes today will become more
easterly by Thursday and weaken a little. Nearshore afternoon
seabreezes will emerge each afternoon, with late night and morning
land breezes. Seas of 1 to 3 feet will prevail on the open Gulf
through this weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Lighter northeasterly flow today will become a bit more easterly on
Wednesday and Thursday. With lighter general flow, afternoon
seabreezes near the coast will more fully develop and penetrate
further inland. One more afternoon of high dispersion is expected
today, mainly due to deep mixing and full sunshine. The dry air mass
will continue today. Slow day-to-day moistening will begin on
Wednesday, especially near the coast as seabreezes more fully
develop. However, wetting rains are not expected through this work
week, extending the weeks-long stretch of rain-free weather.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
No flooding is expected for the next 7 days.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  66  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   89  69  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        89  65  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        90  64  91  66 /   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      89  64  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    89  65  91  67 /   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  84  70  85  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Haner

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion