Decherd, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

973
FXUS64 KHUN 190800
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
300 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Under mostly clear skies, temperatures have been able to fall into
the low to mid 60s with a few locations in the valley dipping into
the 50s. With several locations seeing 0 degree dew point
depression couple with calm winds, at least patch fog is likely
with the possibility of locally dense fog through the morning
hours.
In terms of temperatures, today will unfortunately be plagued
with the same above normal highs in the high 80s to mid 90s. Some
relief from the heat may be possible as a weakening shortwave
ejects off its parent low situated in the northern Plains and
travels across the mid south. This will provide just enough
support for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms with best
chances (20-30%) in NW AL due to proximity to the short wave.
Model soundings again show an inverted V profile with sufficient
CAPE to support lightning, heavy rainfall, and a damaging wind
threat among the strongest storms. Storms look to be scattered in
nature with some locations potentially seeing significant impacts
for those with evening outdoor activities while others remain
entirely dry. Without being able to nail down exactly where and
when impacts could occur, make sure to remain weather aware
through the afternoon and into the evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity should taper off Friday
evening with a loss of daytime heating. New model output was
continuing the diminishing trend. Another mild night is expected
with lows in the low/mid 60s.
The models continued to trend more to the drier side as we go into
the weekend. Thus under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, high
temperatures Sat/Sun should range from the upper 80s east to
low/mid 90s west with light winds. Low temperatures Saturday night
should cool into the mid/upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
The autumn season begins Monday afternoon around 119 PM Central
Time. By the time we reach the new work week, the weak troughing
pattern along the eastern half of the continent will actually
become some what of a broad zonal flow. While that occurs, a
synoptic system is forecast to form somewhere over the Front
Range and High Plains. Have to say somewhere, as the deterministic
models had a variety of solutions. By Thursday morning, the 12Z
GFS had a weaker upper low translating over the southern Great
Lakes, while the ECMWF at the same time had a deep closed low over
the Ozarks. The Canadian was showing just a weak wave over the
mid/upper Mississippi Valley. From the GFS/Canadian POV, a better
transport of lower level moisture from the Gulf of America should
bring chances for showers/thunderstorms for much of this period.
The ECMWF deeper low would bring much higher rain chances and
possibly strong storms should that solution occur.
Given the uncertainty, will stay with an ensemble/blend approach.
It for the last few runs have been going with mostly lower end
convection chances (20-30%) next week. Unseasonably warm conditions
should continue for the period. Low temperatures should range in
the 60s, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Monday/Tuesday,
then a tad cooler in the 80s on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR weather should continue into the overnight. However as we near
daybreak, cannot rule out patchy fog development. At the moment,
have higher confidence of fog at KMSL with VSBY reduced to 4SM,
while in KHSV 5SM. Any fog that forms should dissipate shortly
after sunrise Fri morning. A slightly stronger moisture return
over NW AL could result in isolated convection developing in the
afternoon. Confidence on chances of shower activity are too low
for inclusion in this TAF. Light winds overnight into Fri morning
should become WNW in the 4-8kt range Fri afternoon, then should
become light and variable Fri evening.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RSB

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion