Dawson, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

849
FXUS63 KOAX 240449
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1149 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and perhaps a few isolated storms will linger into
  Wednesday morning, mainly south of Interstate 80. Additional
  rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are expected in most
  areas, though a few isolated pockets of 1" are possible
  (20-30% chance).
- A few sprinkles are possible Wednesday afternoon (10-15%
  chance) with highs remaining in the 70s.
- Dry and warmer weather favored Thursday into next week, with
  highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Early afternoon analysis showed a very positively tilted upper
level trough axis stretching from a cutoff low over the Great
Lakes to another cutoff low over CO and toward the Four Corners
region. Associated precip stretched from CO, along the NE/KS
border and into IA/MO. The band of precip is expected to linger
in areas near/south of I-80 tonight with some guidance still
hinting at some heavier shower or isolated storm development in
that area later this afternoon into early evening. Currently not
expecting those to be too impactful with only some very
isolated pockets of perhaps 1" of additional rain and a more
widespread 1/4 to 1/2". However, if the heavier rain happens to
fall somewhere that received heavy rain last night (e.g.
southern Johnson county), some localized flooding could occur.
Lingering precip associated with the main wave should exit
south by mid to late Wednesday morning. However, another weak
shortwave rounding the back side of the cutoff low over the
Great Lakes will slide through the forecast area, and combined
with a little instability in the cloud layer, could lead to some
sprinkle/light shower development Wednesday afternoon (10-15%
chance). Otherwise, northerly winds will keep temperatures right
around average for this time of year, with highs in the mid 70s
for most. The trough axis pushes off to the east Wednesday
night into Thursday with upper level ridging setting up for the
remainder of the period. This will lead to dry and warmer
conditions into next week with highs mostly in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF cycle. Mid to
high-level clouds will keep pushing southeast early in the
period. Fog potential has shifted farther southeast away from
terminals for early this morning. Will see diurnally driven
cumulus develop at around 4 to 5kft after 17z then dissipating
after 23z. Terminals may see a few pop up showers in the
afternoon as well, but confidence in this occurring is low at
about a 10 to 15% chance.
Winds will remain light under 12kts and generally from the north
northeast.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion