Davis, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

564
FXUS62 KMHX 231142
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
742 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to extend over Eastern NC from the
northeast for the next few days with a weak front and coastal
troughing offshore. Another low pressure system will move in
from the west late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 7:30 AM Tuesday...
Key Messages
- Areas of fog are ongoing across the coastal plain but should
   dissipate within the next hour or two
High pressure continues to reside across ENC with a stationary
boundary just offshore. Overnight and early this morning, this
boundary supported some offshore thunderstorms and a few light
showers along the coast.
There will be two potential culprits for additional light
showers and isolated thunderstorms today: the seabreeze and the
aforementioned stalled offshore front. Neither should produce
more than light precip, and all activity should be relegated to
areas east of Highway 17. However, given the over performance
of showers overnight and early this morning, PoPs have been
increased but capped at slight chance. Mid-level heights will
increase today, warming temps by about 5 degrees compared to
yesterday. The coastal plain will reach nearly 90 with the
beaches maxing out around 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2:15 AM Tuesday...
Key Messages
- Another round of fog possible tonight
Although winds are expected to decouple, there will be greater
cloud cover compared to this morning. This will keep lows more
mild (mid- to upper-60s) and confidence in the development of
dense fog a little lower at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tue...
Key Messages:
- Mostly dry on Wednesday
- Pattern becomes more unsettled Thursday through the weekend
- Monitoring the Southwestern Atlantic for low pressure development
early next week
Overall model agreement in the large scale upper pattern is good,
but the more minute details remain uncertain especially later
this weekend into early next week. This in turn will have an
impact on the ambient weather across ENC this weekend into early
next week and will likely determine what the eventual evolution
of any potential low development in the SW`rn Atlantic is.
Wed and Thurs...Upper ridging will briefly get amplified on Wed
across the Southeastern CONUS into the Mid-Atlantic out ahead
of an approaching positively tilted trough which will be
centered across the Great Lakes SW`wards to the Central Plains.
Ridging will slowly push east into the Atlantic on Thurs/Fri as
upper troughing tracks east and nears the Eastern Seaboard
towards the end of the week. At the surface, high pressure
offshore will gradually push further into the Atlantic while low
pressure and its associated fronts located in the Plains on Wed
tracks NE`wards on Thurs and Fri with this lows associated cold
front nearing ENC on Thurs and gradually tracking across ENC on
Fri. With the aforementioned cold front so far away on Wed, the
area will generally remain dry outside of an isolated seabreeze
shower or storm, though kept PoP`s below mentionable given
subsidence aloft should limit any seabreeze activity. As we get
into Thurs, cold front begins to approach from the west and as
upper level dynamics increase, forecast calls for increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon and evening
starting a period of unsettled weather for ENC, primarily along
the Coastal Plain. Best chances for precip look to be west of
Hwy 17. With increasing moisture return, instability looks to
increase to around 1000 J/kg. With deep layer shear increasing
to around 20-25 kts on Thursday can`t rule out a stronger storm
or two. As the ridge aloft amplifies, low level heights increase
across ENC sending high temps to nearly 90 across the coastal
plain and low-80s at the beaches on Wed and Thurs with lows in
the low 70s.
Friday through Monday...Weather is forecast to remain unsettled
through this weekend as cold front slowly tracks across the region
and stalls offshore promoting elevated shower and thunderstorm
chances with best chances still looking to occur on Fri/Sat.
Upper trough remains over the Eastern Seaboard through the
weekend, with guidance trending towards cutting off the upper
trough with an upper low settling in across the Southeast.
Guidance still varies on the exact strength and position of
this upper low but general trend is for the upper cutoff low to
gradually push NE`wards towards the Mid-Atlantic early next
week. At the surface, stalled front remains offshore with high
pressure building in from the north and west. Across the
Southwestern Atlantic, there remains potential for low
development near the Bahamas early next week with any low that
develops tracking to the north and eventually the northeast.
Though ensemble guidance remains rather spread on the exact
track and strength with low development next week. So outside of
monitoring the situation will leave any mention of low
development rather broad in nature. Temps behind the cold font
lower into the mid 70s to lower 80s Sat and beyond as heights
fall with upper troughing overhead.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through TUESDAY/...
As of 7:35 AM Tuesday...
Key Messages
- Areas of fog should dissipate within the next hour or two
 - Another round of fog and low stratus is possible late
   tonight/early tomorrow morning
Obs are a smorgasbord of VFR to LIFR with visibilities bouncing
between categories. Ongoing fog should dissipate within the
next hour or two and give way to VFR conditions with scattered
diurnal cu. There`s a slight chance of isolated showers east of
Highway 17 this afternoon, but confidence was not high enough to
include VCSH in the 12z TAF for EWN or OAJ. Another round of
fog and low stratus is on the table tonight, especially for
terminals across the coastal plain.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 230 AM Tue...Expecting VFR conditions across ENC during
the day on Wed with a chance at some late night/early morning
patchy fog and or low stratus Wed into Thurs morning. As we get
into Thurs afternoon and beyond, forecasting a more unsettled
pattern as a slow moving cold front approaches from the west
promoting a greater risk for showers and thunderstorms through
the weekend. This will in turn bring an increased risk at sub-
VFR ceilings/visibility from Thurs onwards across ENC.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 2:45 AM Tuesday...
Key Messages
- Conditions improving as Gabrielle moves farther away
Long period swell from Gabrielle continues to impact our coastal
waters with latest buoy obs reporting 6 ft seas at 12-14
seconds. Conditions will improve through the day, however, with
seas expected to subside to 4-5 ft at 11-12 seconds by tonight.
Therefore, the SCA in effect for the central waters remains in
effect until 8 PM tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
coastal waters today due to a stalled boundary offshore.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 230 AM Tue...Benign boating conditions are forecast at
the start of the long term with S`rly flow at about 5-10 kts
expected across all our waters on Wednesday. At the same time
seas along the coastal waters will be about 2-4 ft. A weakening
cold front will begin to approach from the west on Thursday
which will pinch the gradient slightly allowing S`rly winds to
increase to 10-20 kts Thurs evening before the gradient relaxes
slightly on Fri allowing winds to decrease back down to 10-15
kts. Even with the increase in winds seas will generally remain
around 2-4 ft across our coastal waters. Aforementioned cold
front slowly moves across ENC and eventually pushes offshore
over the weekend increasing shower and thunderstorm chances from
Thurs onwards and eventually allowing S`rly flow to shift to a
NE`rly direction behind the front at 10-15 kts late this
weekend. Seas look to generally remain around 2-4 ft through the
remained of the period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...Long period swell from increasingly
distant Gabrielle will continue to reach the coast of ENC over
the next 1-2 days. The latest guidance suggests this will be a
notable 11-13 second swell, but seas are only forecast to be 3-5
ft. Vulnerable areas outside of dune protection will be
susceptible to minor runup during high tide cycles, but with
conditions expected to improve today, no headlines have been
issued.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
     154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...OJC/RCF
MARINE...OJC/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion