Davis Point Aviation Weather Reporting Station, California Weather Forecast Discussion

605
FXUS66 KMTR 250050
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
Issued by National Weather Service Eureka CA
550 PM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 655 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Showers across the Central Coast will spread north to the Bay
   Area through the morning
- Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts have been observed with
   this system
- Bay Area thunderstorms could be dry while the Central Coast is
   receiving wetting rain
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Ample shower activity has been observed across Monterey and San
Benito counties this morning, with some strong thunderstorms in
the southern portion of these counties. Rainfall has been steady,
but hasn`t brought a flooding concern over the dry soil. The
thunderstorms have been strong. A couple RAWS sites in western
Fresno county recorded thunderstorm outflow wind gusts of 50+ mph
prior to 7 AM. This makes sense as the high LCL combined with
evaporating rain helps bring higher momentum air down to the
surface. Sub-hourly HRRR data shows the shower activity will
gradually shift north through the morning hours, moving out of
Monterey County by noon or so. Activity should taper off in the
Bay Area, and the drier low levels will make it harder for much
rain to reach the ground. That said, there is still a slight
chance for lightning, particularly across the East Bay. With the
lack of rain, any dry lightning strikes bring a chance for
wildfire ignition. While the main show is this morning, the
chance for showers and thunderstorms continues through Thursday
morning as the upper level low gradually shifts SE and the
moisture goes with it.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 215 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
(Today and tonight)
Showers and thunderstorms are slowly streaming in from the southeast
this morning. Webcams around Monterey County have show rain falling
with thunderstorms and a few observation sites, if they were hit,
have shown some accumulation. The 6Z special sounding that we
launched, shows PWATs near 1.12 inches at KOAK, which matches the
gradient on the SPC mesoanalysis page. As you travel south on the
map, the gradient goes from 1.10 to about 1.40-1.60", highest over
Central Coast. To the north and north east of KOAK, the gradient is
about 0.8-1.10" with the lower values found over Napa and Sonoma
counties. Thunderstorms, and associated lightning, around the
Central Coast should be wet. In the Bay Area, there is a bit more
uncertainty with wetting rains. The 6Z sounding depicted a massive
dry layer to over come and it will be interesting to see any chances
with the 12Z balloon. Should that hold, any thunderstorms that pop
up in the Bay Area would be drier, whereas moistening could support
some rain with thunder and lightning.
In terms of the thunderstorms, confidence remains the greatest along
the Central Coast for the rest of today. Confidence decrease the
more north you go, with the lowest confidence for thunderstorms
being over the North Bay. Impacts from today`s stronger showers or
thunderstorms include gusty winds in excess of 35mph and lightning.
The dry lightning threat remains the greatest over the East Bay and
southern portions of the North Bay.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 215 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
(Thursday through Tuesday)
A brief period of upper level ridging will nose into the region for
the late portion of the week, which will bring an uptick in
temperatures to the region. Friday will be the warmest day, with
most areas along the Central Coast and San Francisco Peninsula being
near normal for this time of year. For the rest of the Bay Area,
temperatures will be about 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Cooler and
more seasonal weather returns for the weekend. Guidance continues to
hint at another chance for rain early next week via a cold front,
though uncertainty remains on timing and strength.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 5:22 PM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
An upper level low southwest of Monterey embedded within a
moisture plume will continue to produce showers and isolated
thunderstorms through the evening, with showers and isolated
thunderstorms lingering tonight. Conditions at the terminals will
remain mainly VFR though patchy late night and morning fog and/or
low stratus /IFR-LIFR/ /is possible. Showers diminish early
Thursday otherwise itll be partly cloudy with VFR.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR except MVFR surface visibility reduced due
to mist 12z-19z Thursday. West wind 5 to 10 knots.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Isolated thunderstorms nearby this
evening, otherwise showers are possible with the upper level low
moving over the Central Coast tonight and early Thursday morning.
VFR except MVFR is possible due to passing showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Late tonight and Thursday morning patchy low clouds
/IFR/ developing otherwise VFR Thursday. Mainly west wind 5 to 10
knots though briefly gusty winds to 25 knots are possible near
isolated thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are building over the
southern waters and will steadily move northward across the
waters and bays through Wednesday. Thunderstorms will pose the
risk of gusty outflow winds, locally rough seas and locally very
heavy rain. Winds increase to a fresh breeze by the end of the
week. Moderate seas will prevail through Wednesday, building to
become rough in the outer waters Thursday into Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 715 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Thunderstorms across the Central Coast will continue to push
north into the Bay Area through the day. While the chance for
lightning decreases in the Bay Area, any storms that form will
produce much less rain, leading to a chance for dry lightning
strikes. The latest model guidance suggests this threat is
highest across the East Bay in the early afternoon.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: Default
AVIATION/MARINE: Default
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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion